Space Ship One Launches tomorrow in Mojave,CA

[Hiriyu]

Anyone else going?

http://www.scaled.com/projects/tierone/

[Marso]

Wish I could.

This flight, when it succeeds, may well be looked upon in future decades and/or centuries as one of the cusp events in the history of human expansion into space.

[Wumzi]

You mean this is the one where they go all the way to space?

Edit: just read the press release, apparently they are

... Sweet

Edited June 20, 2004 by Wumzi

[Skull Leader]

"....Dedicated to all Future Pioneers......"

My hopes and prayers will be with the SS1 team as they attempt to launch mankind into the next era of manned spaceflight.

[Knight26]

I'll be there, we made up some bullshit excuse meeting for everyone at the office to go too, lol, should be great.

[Commander McBride]

Hmm, sounds cool, I'll try to make it. Mojave's about an hour and a half from LA, right?

[Noyhauser]

Wish I could.

This flight, when it succeeds, may well be looked upon in future decades and/or centuries as one of the cusp events in the history of human expansion into space.

I think its kinda cool and all, but in all honesty, I don't think its going to be the watershed event that some people are proclaiming. In capability its limited, being a suborbital flight (and not even close to the capability of the first mercury capsules). Its basically an X-15 with passengers in what it does. The idea of "space tourism" today is so farfetched its mind boggling. Development of rockets have hit an effective technological plateau since the in 1970s, and progress since then has been incramental to say the least. And that is a government funded venture. What public funds are available for space tourism? Are there honestly thousands of people with billions of dollars clamoring to fund this? Not even close. And yet that is precisely what is needed.

Look at commercial airlines, what is the type of development scheme has gone. There have been no "technological breakthroughs" in the private sector, instead there has been a distinct move towards efficiency and profitability in technological developlment. Are there billions of dollars just lying around for people to go further? Likely not. The greatest innovations for commercial travel were publically funded, like the Concorde and even the first jet airliners where R&D was effectively covered by government expenditures. I just can't see all of a sudden this field taking off, or even in the next 20 to 30 years. Im sure this will make some money, and people will spring for this, but not much more. The money is barely there for it. The real commercial market is in Satellites, which is already well served. This prize is barely profitable. And really, if someone wanted to go to space, rather than a brief suborbital flight, they will probably pay to get a ride on a Soyuz capsule for a REAL ride in space.

Some guy was proposing the creation of a "space hotel" We can't get a frigging space station together internationally, and doing it piecemeal with our largest lifters, and some guy believes that a "space hotel" can be constructed? Give me a break.

Edited June 20, 2004 by Noyhauser

[Zentrandude]

money if your an insurance company. oh no fender bender with a satalite. better call space mako and state errr space farm.

[Hikuro]

I really hope nothing bad happens...pray for good weather and no terrorists, this would be a PRIME target for them.

[Mechwarrior]

I 'd love to make it out there, seems like a historical event indeed. I hope all goes well and look forward to future flights as well.

[Commander McBride]

I really hope nothing bad happens...pray for good weather and no terrorists, this would be a PRIME target for them.

Not really. The only people who really care or even know about this are avation / space / science geeks like many of us here on MW, so it's not a very high profile target.

[Skull Leader]

Noy, don't be so quick to dampen everyone's hopes on this. Everyone knows there's a snowballs chance in hell that this will become the next big thing, but all great journeys begin with one step. If these people prove it can be done (commercially), you can bet someone else will jump the bandwagon and do something with it eventually.

[Commander McBride]

I'm not saying it's not important, just that it's not high enough profile for the general public to be aware of it, hence, little chance of an incendent.

[Hiriyu]

Noy, don't be so quick to dampen everyone's hopes on this. Everyone knows there's a snowballs chance in hell that this will become the next big thing, but all great journeys begin with one step. If these people prove it can be done (commercially), you can bet someone else will jump the bandwagon and do something with it eventually.

Well said Skull Leader, thanks.

Keep in mind, this project was financed through private funds (Paul G. Allen, co-founder of Microsoft ponied up the lion's share), for about the same amount of $$$ it would have required NASA just to do a feasibility study on paper. As a proof of concept, I'd say they've done remarkably well.

...And as Skull Leader says above, "Baby Steps"...

[Noyhauser]

But what have they done is the question? This isn't even much of an accomplishment. In the realm of the capability, its not really even space as we think about it, rather its the technical barrier into space. Okay, maybe the realtively low cost is a one advantage, but beyond that its not really that great of an accomplishment.

To be perfectly frank, I think of it as a waste of money, and over hyped at that.

If you want to talk about "commercialization of space" look at the billions invested in satellites. This market has effectively promped a virtual six way race in the construction oh heavy lift rockets including the Delta IV, the Ariane V, Titan IV, H-IIA, and the Long March 3. With the exception of the Long March the rest of the rockets were built to service the commercial market for satellites, especially for Geosyncronous orbit. (The Delta, Ariane and Titan, have similar ability to put 10,000 Kg into Geosyncrous orbit). Other progams like the Sea Launch Vehicle and the Pegasus are designed to be cheaper alternatives to getting things into space. Putting people in the space is really not much of an accomplishment compared to that market. I rank the Ansari X prize on the same level as mark Faucette trying to go around the world solo in a balloon... thats it.

[Hiriyu]

But what have they done is the question? This isn't even much of an accomplishment.

Well, you yourself likened it to the X-15 project , except that this one is capable of carrying 3 passengers, and was developed by a non-governmental agency using relatively small amounts of 2004 dollars. I think that's a fine accomplishment for what basically amounts to a group of [suitably harcore] civil aviators.

I agree that this particular project doesn't really advance the state of the art in modern rocketry, but I don't think that was ever really the point. I personally see the point as being a demonstration of applied discipline and science over bureaucracy.

I didn't think I brought up anything about the commercialization of space... Must have been the media.

Oh, well, off to watch shiny things go "vroom" in the desert

[Skull Leader]

But what have they done is the question? This isn't even much of an accomplishment. In the realm of the capability, its not really even space as we think about it, rather its the technical barrier into space. Okay, maybe the realtively low cost is a one advantage, but beyond that its not really that great of an accomplishment.

To be perfectly frank, I think of it as a waste of money, and over hyped at that.

If you want to talk about "commercialization of space" look at the billions invested in satellites. This market has effectively promped a virtual six way race in the construction oh heavy lift rockets including the Delta IV, the Ariane V, Titan IV, H-IIA, and the Long March 3.  With the exception of the Long March the rest of the rockets were built to service the commercial market for satellites, especially for Geosyncronous orbit. (The Delta, Ariane and Titan,  have similar ability to put 10,000 Kg into Geosyncrous orbit). Other progams like the Sea Launch Vehicle and the Pegasus are designed to be cheaper alternatives to getting things into space. Putting people in the space is really not much of an accomplishment compared to that market. I rank the Ansari X prize on the same level as mark Faucette trying to go around the world solo in a balloon... thats it.

Umm, a manned vessel of ANY sort reaching orbit is *always* an accomplishment. There are only about half a billion things that can go wrong from the ground to the stratosphere. You can bet that every time a shuttle went up before, everyone on the ground was holding their breath. Projects like that requre a vast number of people to do their job correctly and then do it again just to make sure nothing was wrong the first time.

It's an accomplishment in every sense of the word. How often do we send people that high? Not very often (unless they are passing IN to outer space). Low-cost proof of concept (at least, compared to the govt.) is another accomplishment. For the costs involved in covering a single shuttle flight from liftoff to recovery could fund the SS1 project many times over.

It's proving that less "qualified" (in the sense that they're not govt. licensed astronauts.. read: the average man) people are capable of reaching space for a mere fraction of the cost of what the goverment operates for. The commercialization of space travel is going to be what sets the first colony on mars. I'll bet that right now. It was the same thing in the 1400s when Britain was colonizing North America. While governments gave their consent, it was private companies that actually did the colonizing. This is a crucial step in the future colonization of mankind.

Edited June 21, 2004 by Skull Leader

[Agent ONE]

This project proves a point that I always try to make... If it is government run it costs Billions and it doesn't work well (NASA), if it is privately run it costs almost nothing and runs well.

Lets hear it for the privatization of everything!

I quote the greatest man to ever walk the Earth:

Government isn't the solution to the problem, Government IS the problem.

[EXO]

Has it launched yet? Is there any special channel covering this? Discovery? I'm at work sneaking in and out of the kitchen to look at the TV...

Guess it did... it already landed... oh well...

Edited June 21, 2004 by >EXO<

[Angel's Fury]

This project proves a point that I always try to make... If it is government run it costs Billions and it doesn't work well (NASA), if it is privately run it costs almost nothing and runs well.

Government isn't the solution to the problem, Government IS the problem.

Oh so true!!!

[Hiriyu]

Just got back home... Wow, what a morning. I am close to speechless... It was like total 'Geekstock' up there. Everything went off well, a couple of slight "hitches", but mission accomplished. I had goosebumps nearly the entire duration of the mission.

The live radio "coverage" was very disorganized, the PA system sucked, but that's real grass-roots level organization for you. You guys should have seen the ovation that Mike Melville was given when they towed his craft down the runway, Mike riding on top of it like a space cowboy. He was woopin' it up pretty good

Those Scaled Composites [Rutan] birds are things of absolute beauty. As odd as some of them appear (much like some of Kawamori's designs), you wouldn't expect that they'd actually fly, and stay in one piece while doing so. It's one thing to see pictures and models of them, quite another to see them actually taking off and swooping overhead. Sensory overload.

[F-ZeroOne]

Lets hear it for the privatization of everything!

Railway commuters - and employees - in Britain might disagree with you there, Agent One...

Well done to Scaled Composites, though, for injecting some hope back into us grounded space cadets.

I believe Warp One is the next target, yes?

[Agent ONE]

Lets hear it for the privatization of everything!

Railway commuters - and employees - in Britain might disagree with you there, Agent One...

...

Why would they? It has been proven many times over that private industry is many times more efficient than government run industry.

[ewilen]

Good for the SS1 team.

Whether AgentONE is right or wrong about the benefits of privatization (which I think is not a worthwhile topic for this board), I think it's correct that the main accomplishment here isn't technological, it's just a demonstration that a private group can make it to space. (Not orbit, mind you.) Whether that's worth all the hype layered on top of the basic geek-coolness factor of anything that goes fast and high--personally I doubt it, but to each his own opinion.

Edited June 21, 2004 by ewilen

[F-ZeroOne]

Lets hear it for the privatization of everything!

Railway commuters - and employees - in Britain might disagree with you there, Agent One...

...

Why would they? It has been proven many times over that private industry is many times more efficient than government run industry.

Cutting a very long, and off-topic, story short, its generally agreed that rail privatisation in Britain was botched. I'm not saying privatisation in itself is a bad thing, just that it can go as badly wrong as any government run operation. If you'd like a more in-depth explanation, Agent One, please PM me...

[Skull Leader]

This excites me. I'm glad to hear that everything went ok. LOL, now warp speed would be nice!

[ewilen]

Everything didn't go okay. The ship rolled 90 degrees unexpectedly, and the main trim controls malfunctioned. The backup controls had to be used. As a result of the problem the plane ended up 20 miles off course and only barely exceeded 100 km altitude (328,491 feet versus a goal of 360,000 feet).

A tail nozzle also also "buckled" (according to the New York Times article), which made loud bang, but that had little effect.

As a result of the problems, the team is taking a cautious approach toward scheduling the next flight.

This isn't to say the flight wasn't a success.

Edit: another thing that went wrong, even more serious: loss of attitude control near the time the ship exited the atmosphere.

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996052

Edited June 22, 2004 by ewilen

[uminoken]

They did it again!

SpaceShipOne finished another successful launch. Now if they can do it again on Monday, they'll win the X-Prize!

[David Hingtgen]

This time they had practically complete failure of roll control. Saw the video, does continuous aileron rolls the whole way up it seems.

Note: aileron rolls, not barrel rolls like absolutely every news agency says. 99% of people (and even "aviation experts") think that if you simply hold the stick to the side and roll a 360, that's a barrel roll. Nope, that's an aileron roll. A 4-point roll is a "stepped" aileron roll.

Barrel roll: sidestick AND backstick. Making a corkscrew-shape, as viewed from behind. Continuous loss and gain of altitude, while moving laterally left and right. As opposed to the aileron roll, where the plane doesn't "move" at all (asides from forward). I've seen footage of Super Flankers do 4-point barrel rolls, but I don't see any reason why any other plane couldn't.

[Knight26]

I watched the webcast that aileron roll looked pretty viscous, they had something similar happen in the last flight too, I thought they had corrected that, guess not. DH you seriously expect the morons in the media, bunch of ratings grabbing carion eating scum for the most part, to have anything the realm of technical knowledge? COme on man. Anyway I wish I could have been there for this one, but work kept me from going and if they make their projected launch date of next monday I won't be able to go either, have to go to a fragging ship. If however they slip the schedule a week to the following monday, which I think may happen *Crosses fingers* then I will call in sick to work be there when they win the prize.

[Skull Leader]

here's to hoping the problem isn't serious enough to keep them from launching again on monday!

[do not disturb]

i watched a special on this on Nightline last night and look forward to space travel becoming a reality. they say by the year 2007, they will be commercial flights into space for about $200K. they spoke of NASA and how they've held a monopoly for so long and its come to an end with the x-prize contest. finally, some new minds/talent can enter the ranks of space exploration without having to go through all the ridiculous government crap to get there.

hopefully i'll be a very rich man within the next few years and get a ticket on that sucker. its always been a dream of mine(as well as many)to be go into space and now the possibity is within reach...super cool.

[Major Johnathan]

Well, I just watched the Discovery channel special on SS1. It was very interesting, I recommend it.

I have even more respect for those guys, they put NASA and the rest of the worlds space programs to shame. I don't mean in scale, but in sprit. I wonder how many years and billions of $$$ you'd add to get NASA to duplicate the same mission. (from development, testing and launching.)

Pretty incredible, you got USSR/Russia, USA, China(very recently) and Burt Rutan's group, the only space explorer's to date.

How does Japan, S. Korea, G. Bitain, Germany, France, Canada, Saudi Arabia etc,etc,etc (i.e. wealthy nations) explain they have either no space program or nothing more than shooting up probes? The world seems to lack the kind of pride,courage and spirit that a tiny group on a budget have been demonstating in the Mojave desert. True they humbled NASA a bit, but at least the U.S. has a NASA to humble.

If I were a Japanese taxpayer, I'd be saying WTF!? Compare Rutan's assets and say, Mitsubishi. Let alone the whole Japanese Government. Just a thought.

Anyway, I hope their 2nd launch today goes well. They have some brave pilots. Unmanned space flight is interesting, manned space fight is inspiring.

[Hiriyu]

I wish I could make it up there tomorrow morning, but it's not in the cards for me this time.

Here's to Scaled, SS1 & Mike! Good Luck & Godspeed.

[Skull Leader]

I'll be watching online for word of how the flight goes!