Japan Post suspension of international mail

[Alphahorizon]

Yeah @Guyffon, I'm putting a hold on most or kore otherwise immediate items that would otherwise ship. Something from like Mandrake that's already been released. I suspect within a few months we will all have an idea of what our new  "way of business" will look.

 

Until then I'm in a wait status.

[LRS]

2 hours ago, HardlyNever said:

I can speak about the last one, anecdotally.  I've been on the campus of a higher ed institution for the past 20 or so years (first as a student/grad student, then as faculty).  Online learning has been the "thing that will change everything" in higher ed for... about 15 years now.  And it just never happened.  Physical, on-campus enrollment has increased to some degree or another at every institution I've been at for the past 20 years (some by a lot, some by a little).  And that has always brought more construction, more dorms, etc.

Don't get me wrong, online class enrollment has grown too.  Every institution I have been at has seen increases in online enrollment as well.  But the physical enrollment has kept pace, and often surpassed it.  My wife works as an elementary school teacher, and I can tell you that online learning is not working out too well for her class.  Sure, at lot of it is the ad hoc nature in which this all happened, but there are still a lot of things that don't work as well in a virtual environment.  If online learning does in fact become the new-norm (and I doubt it will in the next decade or so), we're going to need better tools across the board.

All that said, colleges and universities across the US were expecting slight decreases in enrollment over the next few years before the COVID-19 pandemic.  That is mainly due to demographic shifts (less college-aged people in the coming generation).  How this will affect enrollment beyond that, no one really knows.

And that's the take-away from all this.  We're in uncharted territory.  No one knows how this will shake out in terms of changing how things operate.  We know we'll see changes, but it's just impossible to predict which changes are permanent, which are temporary, and what changes we'll have to make that haven't even happened yet.

I think the slow adoption of online courses within higher education has more to do with the business of higher education resisting it. Like you said, having bodies on campus means more money for construction etc. But the current college model is untenable because it's a debt machine. When I went to college it was expected. Like going to high school. However, I'm raising my kids to avoid college until necessary. Personally I think it's a poor investment and is primarily used by employers as a way to filter the massive amounts of potential applicants since the reality is the majority of jobs can be learned with on the job training. 

Just to be perfectly clear, I'm not against education  or becoming educated. I'm against the current business models that higher education practices. If covid helps to tear down down this business model then I believe it's one if the few silver linings to this pandemic. 

I do think online learning for elementary level is not good. Kids at that age need the group structure. 

[HardlyNever]

11 minutes ago, LRS said:

I think the slow adoption of online courses within higher education has more to do with the business of higher education resisting it. Like you said, having bodies on campus means more money for construction etc. But the current college model is untenable because it's a debt machine. When I went to college it was expected. Like going to high school. However, I'm raising my kids to avoid college until necessary. Personally I think it's a poor investment and is primarily used by employers as a way to filter the massive amounts of potential applicants since the reality is the majority of jobs can be learned with on the job training. 

Just to be perfectly clear, I'm not against education  or becoming educated. I'm against the current business models that higher education practices. If covid helps to tear down down this business model then I believe it's one if the few silver linings to this pandemic. 

I do think online learning for elementary level is not good. Kids at that age need the group structure. 

I don't want to derail this thread any further with a referendum on the state of higher ed.  I would just add that it is easy to forget that 18-22 year olds (generally) want more than just a string of courses and a piece of paper at the end.  They want to get away from home, experience new things, meet new people, etc.  Of course colleges play up this experience, and cater to the idea of it being amazing and life-altering.  I'm not saying there are no issues with higher ed today.  It's just when online courses come up, they seemed to be discussed as if they are in a vacuum; or its a very simple transaction of money for a degree, when there is more to it than that.  There is a disturbing percentage of students (depending on the actual college) who attend the bare minimum of classes to pass, while doing other things, so they are there for more than just classes, even with professors actively reminding them that is expensive, and not attending class is a waste of money.  For my part, more online students would make my job easier, and probably more desirable on the market (I work in web development).

Anyhow, back on topic.  I ordered another gundam kit back in march from Amazon, and I realized it is being shipped by Japan post.  I wonder how/if Amazon plans to fulfill that order given the current situation.  They have until the end of April to fulfill it; I wonder if they'll send me some notification about delaying that, too.

I do wish I had stocked up on a few kits before all this...

[jenius]

When I was researching MBA programs, there were a lot that did distance learning (and even more so now). I will tell you, doing a remote MBA seems wasteful (even now). All MBA programs teach you roughly the same thing and what you're really paying for is the network. This is why the Ivy Leagues remain the Ivy Leagues. You make good friends in a tough MBA program, you struggle together on team projects, you try to constantly impress your team mates, and when you're done, you all get high ranking jobs somewhere. When it's time to fill an executive level position, you quickly say "I know somebody" and call your friends in the program. If you reduce that team-building element to people who are the equivalent of Facebook friends, you reduce the likelihood that the network will continue to lift itself up after the program. Even employers, when they see "MBA" on a resume, think 'this guy/gal comes with a network' and when they stop seeing that, MBA will have much less value. So while I think there's tremendous room for online learning, particular for certificate and technical programs, they are certainly not a substitute for more immersive learning (not that anyone here was arguing they are). High School and younger will remain as it is because we live in a society that has gone full dual income so we all need the daycare. 

[LRS]

Agreed HardlyNever.

 

Anyways, how long are kits in stock for? Are they in production for years or is this like the transforming toys that disappear quickly?  

[LRS]

10 minutes ago, jenius said:

When I was researching MBA programs, there were a lot that did distance learning (and even more so now). I will tell you, doing a remote MBA seems wasteful (even now). All MBA programs teach you roughly the same thing and what you're really paying for is the network. This is why the Ivy Leagues remain the Ivy Leagues. You make good friends in a tough MBA program, you struggle together on team projects, you try to constantly impress your team mates, and when you're done, you all get high ranking jobs somewhere. When it's time to fill an executive level position, you quickly say "I know somebody" and call your friends in the program. If you reduce that team-building element to people who are the equivalent of Facebook friends, you reduce the likelihood that the network will continue to lift itself up after the program. Even employers, when they see "MBA" on a resume, think 'this guy/gal comes with a network' and when they stop seeing that, MBA will have much less value. So while I think there's tremendous room for online learning, particular for certificate and technical programs, they are certainly not a substitute for more immersive learning (not that anyone here was arguing they are). High School and younger will remain as it is because we live in a society that has gone full dual income so we all need the daycare. 

Interesting to hear that perspective. I guess it depends on whether it is a career in which you have to sell yourself after you get a degree vs one in which the degree sells itself. In my experience with medicine you dont need a network ( of course connections always help to a degree). Once you have the degree you are good to go to get a job. I imagine liberal arts degrees are similar with needing a network to secure jobs. 

But that system only pays off if the candidate gets a good job through connections that offsets costs of the education. 

 

Oddly I got another shipping notice from mandarake. Maybe thst means my packages are moving. Or it could be a glitch. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by LRS

[LRS]

Anyways, all this talk about education = jobs = money = valks = shipping = covids impact on shipping = my inability to swoosh valk and make pew pew sounds. 

[DYRL VF-1S]

7 hours ago, sqidd said:

How do you play with blocks and eat paste online?

Pretty much!  Good times right?!

[Alphahorizon]

I can taste the paste already. With my new augmented reality glasses which connect me to my fellow knuckleheads while etching my name to this virtual desk as a testament of my time spent, eating glue and playing pick up sticks.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Alphahorizon

[borgified]

Package from DHL via Manda is on the way, will post in the correct thread once received.

[LRS]

4 minutes ago, borgified said:

Package from DHL via Manda is on the way, will post in the correct thread once received.

Good on you!  Cant wait to see it!

[jeniusornome]

@LRS gunpla kits, at least, go in and out of stock regularly.  Bandai does new production runs all the time. You can buy ones going back nearly 20 years, and if they’re out of stock now, just wait a couple months.
 

it’s one of the reasons why you’ll see a lot of kits on a site like HLJ in “back ordered” status.

unless you’re chasing exclusives. Those occasionally get reissues but it’s not common/ or even guaranteed. The really popular ones seem to get several issues of production though. 

[F360]

04-09-20 update from japan post 

Due to the reduction in international flights, after a parcel is collected it might take over 2 weeks to assign a plane to the parcel bound for the USA. 

https://www.post.japanpost.jp/int/information/2020/0409_03.html

 

Significant delay in international mail to the United States

 

As we have announced previously, the novel coronavirus pandemic has caused a global reduction of flights. Accordingly, acceptance of international mail items to some countries/territories is temporarily suspended and considerable delivery delays are expected for outbound mail items to other countries/territories.

Although mail items to the United States are currently being accepted, it is expected to take more than two weeks to load the items that have already been accepted on airplanes to that country due to the significant reduction and suspension of flights.

Therefore, we are trying our best to dispatch promptly as many postal items as possible to the United States, cooperating with airline companies and the postal operator in that country.

We sincerely apologize that delivery will take more time than usual. It would be appreciated if you would kindly understand this situation in advance.

 

From Zenmarket and japanpost 

https://www.post.japanpost.jp/int/information/2020/0409_01.html

We have recently received more updates from Japan Post in addition to the information posted on April 1st.

Starting today, until further notice the following services will be disabled:

EMS and Airmail for:

Australia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Botswana

Surface mail for:

Sri Lanka, Nepal, Brazil, Eritrea, Bhutan, Syria, Bahrain, Fiji, Serbia, Zimbabwe, Botswana

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by F360

[Lolicon]

Already received a couple of DHL packages that shipped late last week from Mandarake. They arrived on Tuesday.

[Knightdramon]

Interesting comments on higher education/online teaching etc.

There's a massive appetite for online teaching provision in the UK, and a lot of Universities are either expanding their online courses portfolio or partnering up with companies/providers that will allow them to do so. 

The reasoning and pros/cons of online teaching in lieu of on-campus teaching are multiple and very different between individuals and even countries. My Bachelor degree is taught fully online. I am doing it part-time so that adds +3 years overall, which is a shame, but as an adult in full-time employment without any financial support from family, I could not [back then] in my late 20ies drop work or downgrade my salary/job to do a full-time, on campus degree. In my near mid 30ies, I would definitely not be willing to put my job on hold for a year [say for a Masters degree] and re-locate somewhere else for a Masters or start commuting to a different city for lectures on a daily basis. I'd argue that the appetite for online degrees grows with age, so to speak, even looking at the profiles of applicants for our online degrees.

A great case can be made about the actual University life; it's a coming of age for a lot of people, new friendships, coming out of your comfort zone, etc etc. But that does come at an actual monetary cost of travel, accommodation etc. Add in moving to another country for a lot of cases and factoring in visa costs etc, combined with the duration of the degree, and that amounts to quite a monetary dedication for a family/individual. Now combine that with the complexities of immigration system per different country and geopolitical relations [try navigating immigration controls if you are from a country listed as a risk country, even if you tick all the boxes] and online degrees are starting to look more and more invaluable.

On-topic...the UK is not yet on EMS list of countries that aren't serviced, but I've cut down all overseas purchases as a precaution. Nippon Yasan were kind enough to change my shipping address for one order to accommodate this, but other than that I'll just sit tight  

[sqidd]

Just got mt bill from Mandy. Ordered a Yamato 1/48 VF-1A Low Vis and a DX YF-19 Full Set. 20K Yen for DHL.  I wonder if it would have been less expensive to ship them separately. That's something I would have checked for my customers.

Overall I didn't do to bad. Not killer pricing though. $299.24/ unit shipped. Worth it for both. Not "Wow, what a great deal!" though.

[borgified]

Those 1/48 Yammie boxes are a pig and they tack on the shipping costs due that odd ball sizing. 

At least there is EMS/DHL to smuggle or plastic crack fixes out which keeps our downtime occupied.

 

Despite all this pre-cautions happening around the world, there's a plus side, the world is getting clearer and reverting itself to its natural state before mass pollution takes over again and everything gets back into full force.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-earth-pollution-noise/609316/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/20/nature-is-taking-back-venice-wildlife-returns-to-tourist-free-city

I'm sure that there's more articles about this environmental plus. 

[Guyffon]

An update on my package to Singapore, its still with japan ems since 4th april, i guess i need to wait another week or so before they can assign it onto a plane

[Saviant]

I have had a ems package at Japan post for 2 weeks and they just sent back to seller. I am in Australia but it isn't a good sign.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Saviant

[sqidd]

Drat. There is something I want off of Jungle but the only option they have is EMS. No telling how long that will take. 

[Guyffon]

4 hours ago, Saviant said:

I have had a ems package at Japan post for 2 weeks and they just sent back to seller. I am in Australia but it isn't a good sign.

I think I read that ems has suspended their service to australia recently but I could be wrong, maybe thats why it got sent back to seller?

[sumyumgoy]

7 minutes ago, Guyffon said:

I think I read that ems has suspended their service to australia recently but I could be wrong, maybe thats why it got sent back to seller?

Looks to be the case.

https://earth.mandarake.co.jp/help/shipping_suspensions.html

 

[crackpot]

Old news but the US will have more to worry about with non-courier shipping if the USPS runs out of money. News recently said they might close down soon as shipping has declined and greatly affected their capacity to stay open. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-could-shut-down-post-office-by-june-congressional-leaders-2020-3?amp

[jenius]

That's just the USPS doing it's part to be included in bailouts, they know the government won't let it happen 

[borgified]

If anyone has stuff from Hong Kong to arrive where ever you are, you might be effected too.

List as of this month on the 9th

https://www.hongkongpost.hk/en/about_us/whats_new/notices/index_id_910.html

https://www.hongkongpost.hk/en/about_us/whats_new/notices/index_id_909.html

https://www.hongkongpost.hk/en/about_us/whats_new/press_release/index_id_688.html

Edit: Changed date to 9th not 10th

Edited April 12, 2020 by borgified

[eXis10z]

My EMS from HK has been stuck about 2 weeks now. Honestly speaking other than DHL/Fed Ex I probably wouldn't use any other postal service right now.

[DYRL VF-1S]

26 minutes ago, eXis10z said:

My EMS from HK has been stuck about 2 weeks now. Honestly speaking other than DHL/Fed Ex I probably wouldn't use any other postal service right now.

I was afraid of that. Stinks

[borgified]

Update from Manda's International webpage page - "Shipping Suspension".

Last Updated: April 11, 2020
* The latest additions will are highlighted in yellow.  

Items that were already shipped with SAL prior to April 1 may potentially be returned to the store by the Post Office.
According to Japan Post, if your package has already gone through the export procedure then it will be held by them awaiting a possible flight.
If your package is returned to us we will contact you with possible shipping methods.

* Modifiied in plain text because it's unreadable in Yellow here.  

[anubis20]

10 hours ago, eXis10z said:

My EMS from HK has been stuck about 2 weeks now. Honestly speaking other than DHL/Fed Ex I probably wouldn't use any other postal service right now.

EMS from HK and China has been like that since February, averaging 3 weeks for me. EMS from Japan has been the same as usual for me. 

[crackpot]

On 4/11/2020 at 2:13 PM, jenius said:

That's just the USPS doing it's part to be included in bailouts, they know the government won't let it happen 

Well the US president currently doesn't want to sign the bill that includes a bailout for the USPS.

[DYRL VF-1S]

This is sad and also possibly impacting of shipments, releases, etc.: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti

[LRS]

Maybe someone living in Japan can confirm but I've heard the Japanese aren't really doing social distancing. If true, that could bite them eventually. Lots of old ppl in japan. 

 

[tekering]

5 minutes ago, LRS said:

Maybe someone living in Japan can confirm but I've heard the Japanese aren't really doing social distancing.

It's true, social distancing is pretty much limited to retired people here.  One of my new students began her nursing school classes today -- yes, even medical schools are conducting classes -- and I continue to teach both adults and kids that show no concern for infection whatsoever.

[jenius]

If you have low infection rates and the ability to test, the preferred method of isolating the bug is to find someone who is infected and then find everyone else they've interacted with and do local quarantines on the at-risk population. Maybe Japan feels like they're in that category at the moment. We should start seeing a transition to a similar model in the US in the not-so-distant future. By May 1, we will have been socially distancing in most areas long enough to have tamped out most the sparks. Lots of measures will be left in place to limit big crowds because, if you found out one of the remaining sparks did something like going to San Diego Comic-Con, that would be really bad. 

[sketchley]

It really depends where you are.  Today the Osaka Prefectural office released the following (pdf format):

• http://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38112/00000000/0413EN Request to Osaka Residents.pdf
• http://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38112/00000000/(EN)Emergency Measures of Osaka Prefecture.pdf

Source: http://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/kikaku/corona-kinkyuzitai/index.html