Validity of the Super Long Range Emigration Strategy

[Uxi]

In the HG/Robotech thread, I mentioned possible reasons why the SLRE strategy might not be as pertinent in the Macross universe. Has there been any other attacks to validate that strategy? How is the continued use of resources sending all these colony expeditions full of civilians being justified? The costs of launching one of these expeditions must be staggering... at least to get it off the ground since the colonies at least of the Island-cluster type in MacF appear to be fully self-sufficient... if not one of the older Macross 5/7/11 type fleets. I am speculating the Megaroads would also be self-sufficient, but far more spartan.

Have there been continued attacks to justify these? One could easily imagine the political argument today over launching the equivalent of a Nimitz carrier battle group with a fleet tender, and a bunch of cruise liners attached to it, along with all the able bodies. Without continued attacks, it's easy to imagine someone could say "hey let's beef up Earth's defenses instead of sending New Macross 26."

Think of all the defenses Earth could have instead: at least 29 Megaroads (Macross 7 was the 7th New Macross Class expedition, right?) up to the 25th (Frontier) as of 2059. That could be 29 SDFN-class ships and 25 New Macross-class Battle-carriers defending Earth instead.

In fact, not only am I not aware of further attacks (though I imagine I'll be corrected post haste, if there is evidence of such) these expeditions have caused a bunch of problems, as well. Megaroad 13 waking up the Protodevlin and causes the massacre of Macross 5 and the near destruction of Macross 7, and Macross Galaxy (NMC 21) stirring up the Vajra.

Discuss.

[anime52k8]

I'd say it would be the opposite. Any major attack would have probably stopped the colonization effort in its tracks; just look at the Macross II time-line. Their colonization never achieved the considerable scale that the main time-lines program did, most likely because there was a major zentradi attack on earth every couple decades in that time-line.

The thing about it is that people never say, "hey, lets spend money on defense projects" when they're at peace. calls for greater defense expenditures always come during and after war, particularity ones where the other side was the aggressor. That along with resources and man power being needed to rebuild the planet would most likely have killed any colonization program in the aftermath of a major attack.

Extended peace and prosperity would probably help a colonization program like the one in Macross. While it may have started as a form of defense program and insurance policy against extinction, by the time the New Macross fleets start showing up colony building would have become a form of public works program.

Obviously the construction of a colony would require a large amount of money and resources, but consider where all that money is going. There would need to be literally hundreds/thousands of contractors and subcontractors, with tens/hundreds of thousands of workers being employed to build these fleets. That a lot of jobs being created and lots of money being injected into the global economy just during the construction phase.

Once completed the fleets would continue to provide jobs and business opportunities for millions of people. There are thousands of people working for the military as part of the escort fleet and thousands more employed to operate and maintain the various civilian ships and in addition to that you have all the various Businesses being run by civilians within the colonies.

And considering major corporations are sponsoring some fleets, the fleets are clearly able to make money. as seen with the galaxy fleet, they where testing and developing new advanced technologies, and every fleet would inevitably be finding new exploitable resources on the planets they eventually arrive at.

:edited for comprehension:

Edited February 24, 2010 by anime52k8

[Seto Kaiba]

In the HG/Robotech thread,

Ugh... we're definitely not off to a good start. It's always an ominous sign when a discussion of part of the Macross universe is preceded by "I was talking about Robotech and...".

I mentioned possible reasons why the SLRE strategy might not be as pertinent in the Macross universe.

And from just from my brief skim-through of your post... I've concluded you seem to have forgotten what the original goal of the emigration program was... they weren't doing it out of fear of an imminent attack, but rather to make sure that if and when that attack came, it wouldn't wipe the whole species out in one go.

Has there been any other attacks to validate that strategy?

As the emigration program isn't unique to just the main Macross continuity, I gotta make this a two-part answer.

For the purposes of the main Macross continuity, the answer is complicated. So far there haven't been any known direct attacks on Earth since Space War 1, except for Grace's Vajra raid in 2059. There have, however, been encounters with rogue Zentradi (and Meltrandi) forces elsewhere... including the events in "Fleet of the Strongest Women". We don't know if there've been other encounters that haven't been listed in the timeline, but there are still a thousand or so fleets of Zentradi out there, plus whatever's left of the Supervision Army... so I'd say it's justified on the grounds of "it's better to be safe than sorry'.

For the purposes of the alternate universe continuity surrounding Macross II, the answer is a definitive yes. The program was proved justified time and time again, with a host of minor Zentradi skirmishes through the 2010s and the 2020s, and major Zentradi offensives in 2036, 2037, 2054, and 2082... some of which encountered Earth by accident, some by design. There's also the little matter of the Mardook encounter in 2092 to vindicate the program still further, though they never did anything quite so extravagant as the Island Clusters... just mass-produced Macross-class ships and Megaroad-class dedicated emigration ships.

How is the continued use of resources sending all these colony expeditions full of civilians being justified? The costs of launching one of these expeditions must be staggering... at least to get it off the ground since the colonies at least of the Island-cluster type in MacF appear to be fully self-sufficient... if not one of the older Macross 5/7/11 type fleets. I am speculating the Megaroads would also be self-sufficient, but far more spartan.

Let's see... we've got the Supervision Army, a good thousand or so Zentradi fleets left, and god knows what else out in the galaxy waiting to kick humanity's teeth in. Insofar as where the money's coming from, let's recall that at least some of these fleets are privately funded... Macross Galaxy was funded in large measure by General Galaxy, and the Macross Frontier was funded by Richard Birla's interplanetary shipping empire. Use of factory satellites and the like probably cut manufacturing costs way down, and asteroid resource mining probably helps cut costs still further.

Without continued attacks, it's easy to imagine someone could say "hey let's beef up Earth's defenses instead of sending New Macross 26."

Considering the above-stated list of threats still roaming the galaxy, I'd rather hedge my bets than get complacent. Also, Earth isn't exactly the center of the universe... they'd probably want to beef up the colonial defense forces too.

Think of all the defenses Earth could have instead: at least 29 Megaroads (Macross 7 was the 7th New Macross Class expedition, right?) up to the 25th (Frontier) as of 2059. That could be 29 SDFN-class ships and 25 New Macross-class Battle-carriers defending Earth instead.

Yes, but as we saw in SDF Macross, the Zentradi would still have overwhelming numerical superiority if it came to something like Space War 1 again... a few extra ships in Earth orbit isn't going to make much difference when they're all outnumbered tens of thousands to one. Also, there would (assuming there was no interim class) be 30 Megaroads, not 29. Macross-1 would be the 31st overall fleet in order for Macross-7 to be the 37th as stated in Macross 7. That'd make 55 known long-range fleets, plus an unknown number of short-range ones mentioned by Kawamori. Also, there were reportedly only 12 SDFNs.

In fact, not only am I not aware of further attacks (though I imagine I'll be corrected post haste, if there is evidence of such) these expeditions have caused a bunch of problems, as well. Megaroad 13 waking up the Protodevlin and causes the massacre of Macross 5 and the near destruction of Macross 7, and Macross Galaxy (NMC 21) stirring up the Vajra.

Who's to say they wouldn't have happened anyway? Recall that the U.N. Spacy encountered the Vajra for the first time long before Macross Galaxy. Humanity would've run into these hazards anyway during galactic exploration, so it's just silly to point the finger at the colony fleets as the root cause. Humanity's always had a big fetish for space exploration, so once they had the means to explore it'd be stupid to expect them not to. The Vajra were non-hostile until provoked anyway...

[RDClip]

In my understanding, Global believed that if they are attacked again by the Zents, then there is a good chance humanity would be destroyed. Thus, spread humanity throughout space, so if earth is destroyed, there is still a much larger chance that humanity and culture could live on.

In all likeliness, if another Zent fleet (around 5 million ships) attack earth and a Minmei-like strategy doesn't work, without a doubt the earth would be wiped out. No matter how much money is diverted from the colonization program, earth wouldn't be able to compare to a fleet of 5 million (or more) ships. And if a Minmei attack works, then why waste money on defense when they could be spreading humanity throughout the galaxy.

Personally i'm glad that the Macross sequels weren't about just the Earth. We were able to see new places and events that are much more interesting that the RT thing of just continual invasions of earth.

[505thAirborne]

In my understanding, Global believed that if they are attacked again by the Zents, then there is a good chance humanity would be destroyed. Thus, spread humanity throughout space, so if earth is destroyed, there is still a much larger chance that humanity and culture could live on.

In all likeliness, if another Zent fleet (around 5 million ships) attack earth and a Minmei-like strategy doesn't work, without a doubt the earth would be wiped out. No matter how much money is diverted from the colonization program, earth wouldn't be able to compare to a fleet of 5 million (or more) ships. And if a Minmei attack works, then why waste money on defense when they could be spreading humanity throughout the galaxy.

Personally i'm glad that the Macross sequels weren't about just the Earth. We were able to see new places and events that are much more interesting that the RT thing of just continual invasions of earth.

Well said, well said!

[Jasonc]

In Macross Plus, there's a short segment where Isamu is about to get relocated. In that one scene, it kinda references the fact that there are mining colonies/operations, and other planets used for specific reasons, not just colonization. It kinda gave me the impression that there are several reasons for the colonization services the fleets serve. Maybe it's more like a realistic version of Star Trek, except instead of just exploring, and expanding, they are also attempting to expand the human race in resources, militarily, gain allies, and adding additional worlds for humans is a great way to preserve the race.

I also agree that the emmigration fleets maybe a lucrative endeavor. Perhaps with mining colonies and being able to obtain that much more in resources, the cost of metals and resources to build fleets isn't as high as it is in our real world. The economics have to be drastically different in that universe than what we would perceive in our own. Just my ideas.

[Uxi]

I'd say it would be the opposite. Any major attack would have probebly stopped the colonization effort in its tracks; just look at the Macross II time-line. There is very little evidence of a successful long range colonization effort, most likely because there was a major zentradi attack on earth every couple decades in that time-line.

Megaroad 1 would have still launched in 2012 on that timeline, no? Macross II always seemed more of a sequel to DYRL than to SDF:M.

And from just from my brief skim-through of your post... I've concluded you seem to have forgotten what the original goal of the emigration program was... they weren't doing it out of fear of an imminent attack, but rather to make sure that if and when that attack came, it wouldn't wipe the whole species out in one go.

No I specifically had that in mind when mentioning Megaroad 13 and Galaxy and provoking what they're intended to avoid.

For the purposes of the main Macross continuity, the answer is complicated. So far there haven't been any known direct attacks on Earth since Space War 1, except for Grace's Vajra raid in 2059. There have, however, been encounters with rogue Zentradi (and Meltrandi) forces elsewhere... including the events in "Fleet of the Strongest Women". We don't know if there've been other encounters that haven't been listed in the timeline, but there are still a thousand or so fleets of Zentradi out there, plus whatever's left of the Supervision Army... so I'd say it's justified on the grounds of "it's better to be safe than sorry'.

Fleet of the Strongest presents an interesting dichotomy wrt this argument. Max and the rest seem surprised that there's still such a large fleet out there... UN Spacy HQ seems convinced it should be trivial to wipe them out. Milia's reaction isn't that they'll be defeated but seems predicated on avoiding a massacre of the Meltran....

For the purposes of the alternate universe continuity surrounding Macross II, the answer is a definitive yes. The program was proved justified time and time again, with a host of minor Zentradi skirmishes through the 2010s and the 2020s, and major Zentradi offensives in 2036, 2037, 2054, and 2082... some of which encountered Earth by accident, some by design. There's also the little matter of the Mardook encounter in 2092 to vindicate the program still further, though they never did anything quite so extravagant as the Island Clusters... just mass-produced Macross-class ships and Megaroad-class dedicated emigration ships.

I'd to think SOME of the MII timeline should still be valid, maybe telecoped in closer to 2020s and 2030s.... doubt SN is too keen on that idea, though.

Considering the above-stated list of threats still roaming the galaxy, I'd rather hedge my bets than get complacent. Also, Earth isn't exactly the center of the universe... they'd probably want to beef up the colonial defense forces too.

Very true. I don't really think it would be an all-or-nothing scenario, but 55 expeditions would be alot harder to justify than say... a dozen. A few Megaroads then a few NMC's. Let them clone and spread out how they will, but moving blindly too far, too fast, is just as likely to provoke something into trying to wipe out the species (see Protodevlin), assuming they don't get too arrogant or ambitious (Galaxy).

Still, Earth's defenses in Plus don't seem particularly impressive... Isamu is able to come right in.

Yes, but as we saw in SDF Macross, the Zentradi would still have overwhelming numerical superiority if it came to something like Space War 1 again... a few extra ships in Earth orbit isn't going to make much difference when they're all outnumbered tens of thousands to one. Also, there would (assuming there was no interim class) be 30 Megaroads, not 29. Macross-1 would be the 31st overall fleet in order for Macross-7 to be the 37th as stated in Macross 7. That'd make 55 known long-range fleets, plus an unknown number of short-range ones mentioned by Kawamori. Also, there were reportedly only 12 SDFNs.

Ah yeah, quick dirty arithmetic flub on the NMC number. In an "all defense" posture, I'm thinking at least some portion of the Megaroads would have been SDFN instead of Megaroad with that number.

Even so, the official timeline isn't mutually exclusive with more than a few NMC Battle-carriers (or a suitably altered design) that aren't attached to an Island. Even moreso, there's the "monitor" concept. Leave out FTL, etc. Of course, the ultimate would be the Macross Cannon's from Macross II.

[Seto Kaiba]

In Macross Plus, there's a short segment where Isamu is about to get relocated. In that one scene, it kinda references the fact that there are mining colonies/operations, and other planets used for specific reasons, not just colonization.

Or, if you prefer a direct mention of a world colonized specifically because it provided a valuable resource... the planet in Macross 7: the Galaxy is Calling Me was referred to as a mining colony by its inhabitants, who were lamenting that they'd apparently run out of whatever valuable mineral they were after.

[Seto Kaiba]

Megaroad 1 would have still launched in 2012 on that timeline, no? Macross II always seemed more of a sequel to DYRL than to SDF:M.

Actually, according to the official chronology for what is now the Macross II parallel world continuity, Megaroad-01 launched in 2014... but the point is, I suppose, valid. There were an unknown number of Megaroad-class ships made after it, and several Macross-class ships as well, which were being made well into the 2050s.

No I specifically had that in mind when mentioning Megaroad 13 and Galaxy and provoking what they're intended to avoid.

Then you're referencing Galaxy incorrectly... the intention of Macross Galaxy was always to find and exploit fold quartz and the Vajra. They went into it with the intention of kicking the beehive, so it's not fair to compare them to the poor sods on Megaroad-13 who accidentally woke the Protodeviln up.

Fleet of the Strongest presents an interesting dichotomy wrt this argument. Max and the rest seem surprised that there's still such a large fleet out there... UN Spacy HQ seems convinced it should be trivial to wipe them out. Milia's reaction isn't that they'll be defeated but seems predicated on avoiding a massacre of the Meltran....

Well, yeah... the U.N. Spacy was used to stomping all over Zentradi renegades and whatnot with the Minmay Attack and whatnot... note that the size of the fleet was still enough to give even Max pause. One could interpret it simply as their being surprised that 500,000 years of slugging it out hadn't significantly reduced the available forces of the Zentradi and Meltrandi. (not out of the question, since Macross 7 and Macross Frontier both play fast and loose with which version of SW1 is right)

Very true. I don't really think it would be an all-or-nothing scenario, but 55 expeditions would be alot harder to justify than say... a dozen. A few Megaroads then a few NMC's. Let them clone and spread out how they will, but moving blindly too far, too fast, is just as likely to provoke something into trying to wipe out the species (see Protodevlin), assuming they don't get too arrogant or ambitious (Galaxy).

*cough* Over 1000 Zentradi fleets remaining... the Protodeviln and the Vajra are minor collateral damage compared to that one looming threat.

Still, Earth's defenses in Plus don't seem particularly impressive... Isamu is able to come right in.

Isamu was piloting a single fighter with a next-generation active stealth system... there's a bit of difference between the military response appropriate for that and the military response appropriate for a Zentradi fleet.

[RedWolf]

In my understanding, Global believed that if they are attacked again by the Zents, then there is a good chance humanity would be destroyed.

That and if Earth became a militarized culture they would have the same pitfalls as the Protoculture did.

Besides from what I understand from Kawamori's interview the money to build these emigration fleets come from the private sector.

If the military had too much power over the civilians Kaifun would've been proven right.

It is the civilian culture that saved the Macross. With the Macross the people got a taste of living in deep space. And there is no turning back from exploring the galaxy.

Edited February 24, 2010 by RedWolf

[Uxi]

Then you're referencing Galaxy incorrectly... the intention of Macross Galaxy was always to find and exploit fold quartz and the Vajra. They went into it with the intention of kicking the beehive, so it's not fair to compare them to the poor sods on Megaroad-13 who accidentally woke the Protodeviln up.

That was one of the objectives. It was still a general colony fleet, as well, wasn't it? Otherwise it would have been more like a "Long Range Survey" fleet or something like that, no?

Sheryl was a singer there so while the Compendium says they didn't have news or amusement facilities, they had to have somewhere for Sheryl to perform (VR /Internet equivalent I imagine).

Well, yeah... the U.N. Spacy was used to stomping all over Zentradi renegades and whatnot with the Minmay Attack and whatnot... note that the size of the fleet was still enough to give even Max pause. One could interpret it simply as their being surprised that 500,000 years of slugging it out hadn't significantly reduced the available forces of the Zentradi and Meltrandi. (not out of the question, since Macross 7 and Macross Frontier both play fast and loose with which version of SW1 is right)

Mylene's reaction seems more consistent with what I would expect: severely outnumbered, though not outgunned if one considers Battle 7. I took UN Spacy HQ reaction and Max's past tense usage to mean that they may have encountered others, but had been able to culture shock them (though Exedore's "without Lynn Minmay" comment would have to put that between the end of SDF:M and the launch of the Megaroad (possibly they heard of the Megaroad 1 meeting and culture shocking another fleet on their own).

*cough* Over 1000 Zentradi fleets remaining... the Protodeviln and the Vajra are minor collateral damage compared to that one looming threat.

well, the Protodevlin and Vajra both seem to one-up that thread by my thinking. Protodevlin either destroy them or create another Supervision Army... Vajra numbers are difficult to conjecture but from the last couple episodes of Frontier sounds like they might have the edge on numbers.

[RedWolf]

Macross Galaxy is a corporate controlled fleet. Meaning it isn't run by a democracy. Its Executive Board were largely responsible for the actions of its forces. Seeing that they want everybody connected and controlled to their hivemind they wanted the Vajra as a tool for total domination.

As for Megaroad 13 as far as we know it only founded a colony on the Varauta system on 2025. Decades later Protoculture ruins were discovered on the ice planet.

The Varauta Research fleet was ordered by Earth UN Spacy to investigate. In my understanding it was a black project that they sent an adviser, Ivane Gyuntar, to lead the expedition.

Two years before Macross 7 the Varauta colony was taken over. What is startling though like the 117th fleet the loss of the colony was covered up. Not the first time they did this it also happened with Megaroad-01 when it disappeared.

[Killer Robot]

I'd say it would be the opposite. Any major attack would have probably stopped the colonization effort in its tracks; just look at the Macross II time-line. Their colonization never achieved the considerable scale that the main time-lines program did, most likely because there was a major zentradi attack on earth every couple decades in that time-line.

If I recall, the Macross II timeline also found the factory satellite much later than the main timeline. That means that the rebuilding was presumably much slower, and in particular space vessel construction was more limited and largely focused on re-purposing salvageable hulls left after SW1. That makes it even less surprising that they were committed to a fortification strategy.

[azrael]

Macross Galaxy is a corporate controlled fleet. Meaning it isn't run by a democracy. Its Executive Board were largely responsible for the actions of its forces.

Being heavily financed by corporations doesn't mean it wasn't a democracy. They're were probably other corporations with their own agendas considering Galaxy was a technology hub. General Galaxy covered the majority of the construction costs but it does say corporations were involved with with it's support and planning.

[Seto Kaiba]

If I recall, the Macross II timeline also found the factory satellite much later than the main timeline. That means that the rebuilding was presumably much slower, and in particular space vessel construction was more limited and largely focused on re-purposing salvageable hulls left after SW1. That makes it even less surprising that they were committed to a fortification strategy.

Actually, that's not correct...

In the parallel world continuity, the U.N. Spacy captured at least one factory satellite prior to 2036. Exactly which one isn't mentioned, since it's simply referred to as "the factory satellite", but it looks more or less identical to the one they capture in Super Dimension Fortress Macross. The U.N. Spacy captured another one shortly after defeating the massive 2054 Zentradi invasion force, which provided the technological advancements that led to the development of the mecha seen in Macross II: Lovers Again. Indications are that the U.N. didn't get big into building new ships until after their fleet took a real pasting repelling the 2054 Zentradi invasion, and prior to that spent most of their resources refitting existing Zentradi ships to handle VFs. Not-so-salvageable Zentradi ships were landed and remodeled into commercial and residential areas to facilitate planetary reconstruction efforts.

Also, let me reiterate that the parallel world continuity DOES have a colonization program which was still running as late as 2054, when the Zentradi attacked a Macross-class colony ship 1.8ly from Earth. How many ships were launched isn't known, but they WERE launching them.

[dreamweaver13]

That and if Earth became a militarized culture they would have the same pitfalls as the Protoculture did.

Besides from what I understand from Kawamori's interview the money to build these emigration fleets come from the private sector.

If the military had too much power over the civilians Kaifun would've been proven right.

It is the civilian culture that saved the Macross. With the Macross the people got a taste of living in deep space. And there is no turning back from exploring the galaxy.

Was about to add this myself.

To paraphrase (or to needlessly lengthen a sufficiently concise point made by redwolf), there are 2 angles Global may have been working from.

First, if there is another threat, earth may not be as lucky to survive this time. And if all the eggs are in just one basket, then: no earth = extinction.

Second, even if earth would be able to devise a defense and military system to repel an enemy invasion with 99.9% success rate, what kind of civilization would that be? Pretty much a warlike civlization, which Global wanted to avoid. Remember, in the scene, Misa and Global were looking out the bridge window and remarking how beautiful the earth was. Would it still be beautiful if it was armed to the teeth against an alien invasion? after all, how much military resrouces and hardware must be scattered around the earth to repel a full invasion from all the zentraedi? or SA? or both? or a Basara? Probably pretty much enough to make the earth a crappy place to live in. Ergo, branch out.

[Gubaba]

Second, even if earth would be able to devise a defense and military system to repel an enemy invasion with 99.9% success rate, what kind of civilization would that be? Pretty much a warlike civlization, which Global wanted to avoid. Remember, in the scene, Misa and Global were looking out the bridge window and remarking how beautiful the earth was. Would it still be beautiful if it was armed to the teeth against an alien invasion? after all, how much military resrouces and hardware must be scattered around the earth to repel a full invasion from all the zentraedi? or SA? or both? or a Basara? Probably pretty much enough to make the earth a crappy place to live in. Ergo, branch out.

Very good point. Quite honestly, while I understand the necessity for the defense net around earth in Macross Plus, I found it more than a little disturbing.

[Roy Focker]

In my understanding, Global believed that if they are attacked again by the Zents, then there is a good chance humanity would be destroyed. Thus, spread humanity throughout space, so if earth is destroyed, there is still a much larger chance that humanity and culture could live on.

That's it.

Sure they'll use a ridiculous amount of resources on each trip. These are people who know the chance of extinction is very real in their time.

[Uxi]

The other extreme from full militarization or rats abandoning the ship is to lay low and go to ground and hope noone stumbles onto you. Sneak around, careful recon, unmanned probes, lots of stealth, tip toeing around.

Reality would be somewhere in between all 3. I think I find the Macross II the most plausible with limited emigration and bumping noses with other zentraedi fleets.

My biggest hope for another Macross series is another gigantic Zentran fleet. Maybe give shades of DYRL and Fleet of the Strongest Women with both Zentran and Meltran fleets... Still, I'd like to see a remnant of the Supervision Army, too... maybe a Meltran Fleet fighting an SA fleet. With a love triangle and probably another Macross colony fleet involved. One of the New Macross ships left Eden on an apparently intersecting vector with Megaroad 1. While I think it would be best if they leave Megaroad 1 a mystery/macguffin, that fleet could hear hints of it, etc.

[sketchley]

So far there haven't been any known direct attacks on Earth since Space War 1, except for Grace's Vajra raid in 2059. There have, however, been encounters with rogue Zentradi (and Meltrandi) forces elsewhere...

Incorrect. The enemy Zentraadi forces in Macross Digital Mission VF-X attack Earth with a large fleet at the end of the game. Debatable specifics aside, they do attack Earth with a mobile fortress class vessel.

[sketchley]

Very true. I don't really think it would be an all-or-nothing scenario, but 55 expeditions would be alot harder to justify than say... a dozen.

Actually, it is. Remember the surface of the Earth in Macross Plus? Is a planet like that (blast crators with zero vegetation) cabable of supporting life? Let alone human life in the billions? It makes sense to create Emigrant Fleets for the simple reason of alleviating the population explosion on Earth.

Sure, mass cloning stopped, but there is still demographic momentum. Or exponential growth, a la the logistic function: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_grow...pulation_growth

So, with access to available resources and room to expand into (the Emigration Fleets), there is still a net upward increase in population. Max and Miria provide a good example: 7 children. If they are taken as representative, and if the majority of people at the time of the ending of mass cloning were in their prime birthing years, then the Macross F time period would be in the midst of a... hmmm, a baby boomer generation? And as we have yet to hear of the Soylent Green population solution being employed in the Macross universe...

[sketchley]

Exactly which one isn't mentioned, since it's simply referred to as "the factory satellite", but it looks more or less identical to the one they capture in Super Dimension Fortress Macross.

Erm... there are no articles in Japanese. So, shouldn't that be "factory satellite"? Therefore, the sentence translated should read "a factory satellite was captured", and not "the factory satellite was captured".

a implying one of many.

the implying there is only one.

Random note: Macross Chronicle states that more than one Factory Satellite was captured by the UN Forces, and that there are Factory Satellites of different sizes.

[Seto Kaiba]

Very good point. Quite honestly, while I understand the necessity for the defense net around earth in Macross Plus, I found it more than a little disturbing.

Honestly, I didn't... it seemed like a logical enough step, while the U.N. was devoting a lot of its resources, and likely a substantial part of its shipbuilding, to the emigration program.

Sure they'll use a ridiculous amount of resources on each trip. These are people who know the chance of extinction is very real in their time.

But also, we have to think of the assets they would also come across... being able to harvest necessary materials from planets and asteroids, and Kawamori's mentioned that the fleets also incorporate any old factory satellites they run into... so the expense could be said to pay off over time...

Incorrect. The enemy Zentraadi forces in Macross Digital Mission VF-X attack Earth with a large fleet at the end of the game. Debatable specifics aside, they do attack Earth with a mobile fortress class vessel.

Ah, my bad.

Reality would be somewhere in between all 3. I think I find the Macross II the most plausible with limited emigration and bumping noses with other zentraedi fleets.

And your evidence that the emigration program was limited in Macross II's parallel world continuity is what? I'm certainly not familiar with any. Granted, the known fleets are somewhat smaller in scale than the enormous fleets in the main continuity, but there's no evidence at all to suggest that the program was any less prolific than the pre-New Macross-class emigration program in the main continuity. We can say with absolute certainty that they were still launching colony ships as late as 2050.

Also, as far as the whole "bumping noses" with other Zentradi fleets goes... remember that several of the major encounters were not coincidental. The encounter with the Zentradi Neld fleet in 2036, and the 2037 battle with the Burado fleet were instigated for various reasons by Quamzin, who had prior knowledge of Earth's location. We can't really call the Space War 1 encounter with the Zentradi and Meltrandi, since in those cases one fleet was chasing the other, and the Boddole Zer main fleet was chasing the Meltrandi gunship that became the Macross.

Erm... there are no articles in Japanese. So, shouldn't that be "factory satellite"? Therefore, the sentence translated should read "a factory satellite was captured", and not "the factory satellite was captured"

a implying one of many.

the implying there is only one.

I'm adding context here... in the dialogue in question from Macross 2036, Vrlitwhai is referring to one specific installation in Earth orbit, which was the only one they had at the time, and the objective of Quamzin's final assault.

Random note: Macross Chronicle states that more than one Factory Satellite was captured by the UN Forces, and that there are Factory Satellites of different sizes.

Not necessarily applicable to the parallel world continuity I was talking about... but interesting nonetheless.

Edited February 24, 2010 by Seto Kaiba

[Ghost Train]

I haven't read any of the other posts - just a caveat, but here is what I think.

Sci-Fi/Anime have the habit of simplifying the galaxy/universe space in general into a nice big 2D map that people can relate to, and pretty much ignore the Z-axis. Star Trek is guilty of this, lol 4 nice quadrants for the whole galaxy. Star Wars does a worst job... they talk of the "outer rim" like it's some sort of road trip, and most anime I've seen do it too. As much as I love LOGH, the galaxy is as flat as a 2D map of Earth, to better abstract the idea of dueling masterminds and convey a classic Napoleon vs Wellington, etc feel.

Aside from the obvious, don't put all your eggs (in this case the human species) in one basket strategy, expanding is less risky than not expanding. Given the immensity of the whole Galaxy, encountering even one of those 1,000 renegade fleets or other nasty things that roam the galaxy with ill intent is relatively small. It is like saying, "I am not leaving my home today, because the Yeti from Himalaya has a 0.000001% chance of getting on a plane, finding out where I live, and steal my PS3."

Edited February 24, 2010 by Ghost Train

[Uxi]

The galaxy is 3D, of course, but most of the arms especially are on a relatively "flat" plane, especially in comparison to the galactic core. Fold space pretty much puts you where you want, anywhere, right? No way of "interdiction" like say, Star Wars has in hyperspace, is there? Other than the naturally occuring Fold Faults (which don't bother the Vajra, of course).

Space is pretty big... It's generally blind luck (or misfortune, depending on your POV) that ASS1, regardless of it's Meltran or Supervision origin, crashed on Earth. Pretty astronomical odds... why didn't it it go to Proxima Centauri or Sigma Orionis or 40 Eriadni? If it did come into this system, why not Mars or Venus or one of the moons of Jupiter or Saturn? Security by obscurity would lessen chance encounter with wondering Zentran, Meltran, or Supervision forces than sending out colony expeditions, much less wondering into icy caves holding the dormant Evil series.

[RedWolf]

Also note that humanity potentially increases its strength as it assimilates others in its sphere of influence .

A couple of examples are planet Zola and Chlore's fleet.

Zola is located around the rim. Which makes me think the Protoculture seeding program did its job outside the civil war frontlines. Its existence proves there are potentially other miclone races out there besides Humans. Which potentially are willing to join its hegemony given the state of constant warfare in the galaxy by the Zentradi-Supervision Army war.

Though its a fluke by having Basara NUNG gained a valuable ally fleet of Meltrans. Zentrandi warships are already hard to come by as only a hundred survived Space War 1.

I believe Veffidas herself is a recently cultured Meltran. Though her early life appears to be planet bound.

[dreamweaver13]

Very good point. Quite honestly, while I understand the necessity for the defense net around earth in Macross Plus, I found it more than a little disturbing.

What's even more disturbing is that a defense net that condensed and cluttered couldn't even stop 2 valks from making landfall.

[Ghost Train]

The galaxy is 3D, of course, but most of the arms especially are on a relatively "flat" plane, especially in comparison to the galactic core. Fold space pretty much puts you where you want, anywhere, right? No way of "interdiction" like say, Star Wars has in hyperspace, is there? Other than the naturally occuring Fold Faults (which don't bother the Vajra, of course).

Space is pretty big... It's generally blind luck (or misfortune, depending on your POV) that ASS1, regardless of it's Meltran or Supervision origin, crashed on Earth. Pretty astronomical odds... why didn't it it go to Proxima Centauri or Sigma Orionis or 40 Eriadni? If it did come into this system, why not Mars or Venus or one of the moons of Jupiter or Saturn? Security by obscurity would lessen chance encounter with wondering Zentran, Meltran, or Supervision forces than sending out colony expeditions, much less wondering into icy caves holding the dormant Evil series.

Although you make a good point with security through obscurity, sending a few colonization fleets and settling the minute number of worlds that we currently know have been colonized is still pretty much obscure.

Although the galaxy is wider than it is "tall", the tallness is still quite unfathomable and its distance astronomical. The diameter of the milky way is 100,000 light years, and it has an average thickness of 1,000 light years, which although only 1% of its width, is still a lot of area.

The real issue is not so much the dimensions of the galaxy but how many stars there are in it total. I think the galaxy has an average of about 250 billion stars - though I think this is an estimate from the min/max. Even if humans settled 1000 stars (not as fluent in macross lore, but I doubt that by the time of Frontier they have that many colonies ), that is still 0.0000004% chance that a blind jump into a random star would hit a human colony ((1E3 / 2.5E11) * 100). And that is just for a settle world, the odds that you will accidentally hit a colonization fleet like Frontier that is constantly on the move is well.... almost impossible. Also we are assuming that the galaxy is completely charted, and whatever unknown enemy knows exactly where every star is - which is probably not the case.

Also, another factor in favor of the immigration fleets, is that the nature of jumping means that we might have colonies that really really far in terms of light years from Earth, or Eden, or whatever. Hence the Macross government is not really a territorial empire, but more like a network of various nodes that can be represented as a graph with nodes with vertices and edges. The weight of an edge would be some factor that complicates a long range jump such as fold faults, etc, and the vertices are the worlds.

Suppose that a hostile force encountered 1 human colony by accident. The logical conclusion would be that they can easily work their way all the way back to Earth, but in practice since we're dealing with a network this is much harder than it sounds. Plotting an invasion plan in a networked system is like the the Travelling Salesman Problem, where you would have to figure out what is the optimal path to take to hit every world and totally decimate NUNS. What our smart 20th century mathematicians have figured out is that there is no efficient algorithm (NP-Hard problem, non deterministic polynomial time - hard) that can help you devise this plan - there are ways to do it, but it's only "fast" with small number of units. In laymen's terms, it's a logistical nightmare.

Again this is assuming that the enemy knows every single human system. In Halo for instance, despite the fact that humans were so tech inferior to the covenant, the protocols that protected Earth's locations still ensured that the Earth Government would last 30+ years against a seemingly insurmountable enemy. Likewise, you would expect Macross colonization fleets to have similar protocols to protect the location of other settled worlds and Earth.

Edited February 24, 2010 by Ghost Train

[MarineCorps]

Think of all the defenses Earth could have instead: at least 29 Megaroads (Macross 7 was the 7th New Macross Class expedition, right?) up to the 25th (Frontier) as of 2059. That could be 29 SDFN-class ships and 25 New Macross-class Battle-carriers defending Earth instead.

If you remember the fleet that Vrlitwhai commanded when he switched sides was composed of ~1213 ships. Most of which were several time larger then the SDF-1. If 1213 ships couldn't stop earth from being destroyed I don't see what 50 or so more ships, which are probably considered cruisers compared to Zentradi ships, could do.

[Gubaba]

What's even more disturbing is that a defense net that condensed and cluttered couldn't even stop 2 valks from making landfall.

Enh, that makes sense, I think. A screen door can keep flies out, but not teeny-tiny dustmites or something.

[Uxi]

I guess having everyone brained drained by Sharon Apple at the same time didn't help.

Still, Protoculture forbid some Zent Ace or rogue faction don't possess any advanced stealth and come to drop a reaction weapon on Macross City.

[dreamweaver13]

Enh, that makes sense, I think. A screen door can keep flies out, but not teeny-tiny dustmites or something.

Good point. Although I'd like to think that the defense net should be able to stop a little thing, perhaps a WMD (Dimension Eater anyone?), from getting through. In that sense, I feel the net is a bit flawed. Surely, nowhere near enough to stop a major invasion, and also not fool-proof enough to stop a covert one.

That being said, I wonder how well the "defense net" did against the Vajra invasion?

[Freiflug88]

One could easily imagine the political argument today over launching the equivalent of a Nimitz carrier battle group with a fleet tender, and a bunch of cruise liners attached to it, along with all the able bodies. Without continued attacks, it's easy to imagine someone could say "hey let's beef up Earth's defenses instead of sending New Macross 26."

Well in our world launching a Navy fleets and cruise liners wouldn't serve any purpose TODAY, but back in the 1800s up to the the early 1900s most of Europe was profiting greatly from colonizing and blundering what are now third world countries. In the Macross universe on the other hand there is an entire galaxy's worth of planets and asteroids to colonize and plunder. Whats more with sentient natives like the Zola being few and far between the UN Spacey has never really had to face the moral dilemna of encrouching on native lands to meet their colonizing and/or plundering needs for their Emigration strategy. Innumerable territories to colonize and resources to plunder with little or none of the ethical issues that plague our world's colonistis all within the grasp of a Space Fairing culture that was nearly wiped out by a gigantic fleet of 500 millions would be too appetizing not to take advantage of IMO.

What's even more disturbing is that a defense net that condensed and cluttered couldn't even stop 2 valks from making landfall.

Just as the US Army's Patriot missile systems can never successfully hit every ballistic missile at Mach 6+ its understandable that automated satelite laser cannons would miss a few Satelites debris and Valks that drop in like meteors. Whats more the VF-19 and VF-22 were build as the answer to the UN's request to do just that: slip in past enemy defenses and then surgically strike the enemy center. In this case the enemy defense line to slip through was UN Spacey's own Defense grid and the enemy center was the Sharon Apple box at the core of the SDF, never the less the UN got exactly what it asked for and needed at the time of the Sharon incident: a Valk that could slip in and strike hard and fast like a "Super Nova."

Space is pretty big... It's generally blind luck (or misfortune, depending on your POV) that ASS1, regardless of it's Meltran or Supervision origin, crashed on Earth. Pretty astronomical odds... why didn't it it go to Proxima Centauri or Sigma Orionis or 40 Eriadni? If it did come into this system, why not Mars or Venus or one of the moons of Jupiter or Saturn? Security by obscurity would lessen chance encounter with wondering Zentran, Meltran, or Supervision forces than sending out colony expeditions, much less wondering into icy caves holding the dormant Evil series.

I have to argue that its also been shown time and time again in Macross that its very easy to find that a needle in the gigantic haystack of space if you happen to be able to detect the right energy or signal.

- In M0 the Cyclops system made with OverTech detected an alien energy signature that was very similiar to energy signature found on the ASS1, leading the UN forces to excavate the AIFOs/Birdhuman body near the Mayan Islands according to Aeries breifing.

- The Zetetradi tracked the ASS1 to Earth through Fold and knew it never folded out of the Solar System due to the absence of fold faults in the first episode of SDF.

- In DYRL part of the Atlantian city rose to the surface after it detected the Zentradi fleet surrounding the earth according to Misa.

- In M+ Isamu turns the flight systems of the VF-19 off and drops in like a meteor while Guild instead boxes his Battloid up in a giant square Satelite, to use as a Faraday cage I assume, because Space debris never manuever on their own or give off detectable energy signals.

- Pre-M7 An expectation to the icy caves holding the dormant Evil series/Protodevlin was carried out to investigate faint and unknown energy readings that the UN detected and proposed to be protoculture ruins.

- In M7 Gamlin and crew fly with AWACS sensors to look for Fold Faults in one instance to search for the separated Macross 7 until Chibi develops a system that can detect Basera's song energy through the Fold System.

- Also in M7 its revealed that their is a Galaxy Network for long distance communications and later in Frontier its shown to be a galatic internet network. I am assuming there must be nodes dropped behind by on route fleets to bridge the distance gaps and route data traffic through the networks. I would also bet that any fold capable race close enough should be able to detect and follow the Galaxy Networks internet traffic through faint fold faults unless the UN Spacey upgraded them all with Vajra Crystal cores.

Now the ASS1 was originally built by Protoculture so it would be surprise if Earth's location was in the Navigational database. Since there were no crew members and the ship was on auto-pilot my guess is it was programed to last ditch kamikaze run if the Supervision's autofiring booby trap program is anything to go by. Its obvious that the Protoculture only bothered seeding and settling the occisional habitable Earth-like planets that dot the Galaxy instead of spending the time and resources to terraform every single planet into an Earth-like environment just like the UN SPacey's current Emigration strategy. So if the Old ASS1 was headed for the nearest Protoculture locale in its Database it would have no reason to crash on any other barren planet or moon in our solar system as they all seemed to be ignored by the protorculture.

As for Security by obscurity I don't think that isn't practical for a society that regularly uses gigantic colony ships that periodically fold, a wireless galactic fold internet network for communications, and song entertainment all of which are probably easily detectable and trackable to any race with super dimensional radar technology like Macross Zero's Cyclops system, an apparent prequisite to fold travel. In other words any nearby fold traveling race could easily follow the trail of a UN Spacey Emmigation fleet unless the UN SPacey turns into the most oppressive dictatorship ever and takes drastic measures to ban all the fold drives, the internet, and music.

[Freiflug88]

Good point. Although I'd like to think that the defense net should be able to stop a little thing, perhaps a WMD (Dimension Eater anyone?), from getting through. In that sense, I feel the net is a bit flawed. Surely, nowhere near enough to stop a major invasion, and also not fool-proof enough to stop a covert one.

That being said, I wonder how well the "defense net" did against the Vajra invasion?

I would be willing to bet that Grace or one of her cybernetic cronies took a lesson from Sharon and hacked the entire Earth Defense. Grace's Fold Network plan was in the works for years and I wouldn't be surprise if she used the Sheryl Concert tours as a way to plant viruses and/or spies in advance for the for the planned invasion with the Vajra. With a single cyborg crony upgraded with a fold quatz implants per fleet/colony I imagine it would be a simple task for Grace to hack into and shut down each UN Spacey Defense network by proxy.

[Gubaba]

Good point. Although I'd like to think that the defense net should be able to stop a little thing, perhaps a WMD (Dimension Eater anyone?), from getting through. In that sense, I feel the net is a bit flawed. Surely, nowhere near enough to stop a major invasion, and also not fool-proof enough to stop a covert one.

That being said, I wonder how well the "defense net" did against the Vajra invasion?

It did nothing. Captain Kim Kabirov deserves all the credit for fending off the lobster threat.