The rising cost of toys.

[Roger]

Oil has hit $122 a barrel:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/markets/oil.ap/index.htm

Zinc prices are rising dramatically:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/06/coin.infl...n.ap/index.html

The basic materials used to make our plastic monsters and metal robots are getting more expensive by the day. Add to that a weakening dollar, rising foreign labor and transportation costs, and you can see it's going to be rougher and rougher for manufacturers and collectors alike.

Adjust your disposable income accordingly...

[Fort Max]

Not to metion the increasing focus on producing high end collectors toys which has become very noticeable.

[mechaninac]

Diligent budgeting and buying discretion are going to become more and more important in out purchasing habits. Personally, I intend to spend 20-50% less on toys than I did last year; but even if I were to spend around the same amount I'll end up getting less stuff.

[eriku]

My concern isn't that I wont be able to afford things, but that companies will cut back on production and there will be less to choose from.

One thing I've done that has made a huge difference in the amount of disposable toy money I have is joined NetFlix. I used to buy DVDs all the time, lots of them, and NetFlix effectively curbed that craving.

[VFTF1]

Oil has hit $122 a barrel:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/markets/oil.ap/index.htm

-----NOTE: I will now proceed to pontificate Feel free to disagree:)---------------

With all due respect - but this is just so utterly WRONG in terms of focus, and America and Americans are going to suffer if they keep up with this bad economic thinking.

The price of Oil is not "rising" astronomically - the value of the US Dollar is FALLING astronomically.

If American journalists would take the time to think and be reflective in their reporting (hah - like that'll ever happen) - they would find that the price of Oil counted in most major foriegn currencies, not to mention minor ones, has - on a percent basis - been substantially LOWER than the rise in the price of oil in US Dollars.

It is not oil, or any other good that is magically becoming more expensive - it is the American dollar which is becoming worthless.

Why?

Because the Federal Reserve has been on an inflationary binge to finance a vast welfare/warfare state. Fiat money (paper money) is inherently inflationary because central banks can always just "print more" - but it has become especially so in the United States where Americans a) (rightly) do not want to pay higher taxes to finance the warfare/welfare state and b) (wrongly) do not want to cut spending on either the warfare or welfare state and c) (terribly) continue to epxand inflationary spending - having the Fed finance the deficit through inflationary schemes, by selling T-Bills to foriegn countries, by their lunatic policy of buying bad morgage loans from banks in return to T-Bills (a policy that is as insane as it is novel).

During the lat 1970s, following massive Federal spending on warfare (Vietnam) and welfare (the "Great Society"), America paid for both of them with the onset of stagflation. Economic growth went down and prices went up (something that does not happen under normal circumstances, since whenever economies hit rough times, prices [and wages] fall as the market self corrects [think of it like a national 'going out of business sale' where excess intenvotry must 'go go go!']).

Nowadays, the same thing is happening because the same flawed policies are still being implemented - only with greater force.

Anyways - just check the rate of growth in the price of oil in foriegn currencies and compare it to the rate of growth in US Dollars. You will see that the reason this problem is so pressing for Americans is because while yes - Oil is going up - at the same time the US Dollar is drastically falling in value - which means that for Americans - Oil is going REALLY up.

I find it amusing, however, that CNN and the mainstream media in the States often act as if the fact that Oil hits 122 USD means the same thing for people in Russia or China as it does for people in the US.

When "122 USD" is worth less and less - then Oil rising to 122USD is only bad news for people who primarily operate using USD.

The real culprit is the Fed; and its' enablers in Congress who do nothing in terms of oversight of the institution.

How does this all play out in relation to Toy prices?

Think about it. If you have to give more and more US Dollars in order to buy Japanese Yen in order to buy Japanese toys - then are the Japanese toys becoming more expensive, or is it that your currency is just becoming Monopoly Money?

VFTF1

[do not disturb]

if they want to sell high priced toys in this economy, good luck to them.

people are broke and only going to be more broke as the price of everything and anything is continuing to go up.

while this news sucks there is a plus side, it means all that high priced stuff that no one can buy right now will eventually go on sale.

[JsARCLIGHT]

When your belt needs to tighten, hobbies are the first thing to go. We should count ourselves lucky if all we "lose" is the ability to fritter money away on plastic crap. Just as they say restaurants are the canaries in the economy coal mine, trinkety hobbies are the same to collecting. When people stop eating out due to budgetary concerns, restaurants close... when people stop buying trinkety collector crap, it dries up. But at the same time it forces companies to "get smarter" when it comes to how they design, build and market their items.

IMHO the collector toy market is in dire need of a kick to the teeth. Companies have been getting lazy and complacent, as have collectors. We think nothing of dumping $100 here and $100 there on repaints, duplicates and toys that would normally be unworthy of purchase... but we buy them anyway because we have to "complete the collection" or some such nonsense. Our own "addiction" and bad "good economy" habits have aided in the creation of an unstable market that will partially collapse very quickly under a widespread bad economy. Kind of like the whole SUV thing... people were just so eager to run out and buy an eighty thousand dollar land yacht that blows gas like a flamethrower when times were good, but when times turn sour that lumbering guzzling behemoth is unsupportable.

If you ask me (which no one does but I show up and talk anyway) this downturn in the economy is the perfect time for many of us to ween ourselves off of these crazy stupid buying habits we have. We should learn to close our wallets more often, pass up that duplicate, repaint or repackaging. Pass up that ridiculously expensive toy, even if "we have to have it". That is the addiction talking. Then take all that money we would have spent and roll it into an interest bearing account or some stock... hell, with the stock market dropping I bet we could all pick up some good buys that will turn around once this slump is behind us. We would have "thrown that money away on toys" anyway. A few years back I took this advice and started only buying that I really thought I needed and not what I simply "wanted". I stopped buying everything just because it said "Macross" on it, et cetera. Once I put a ton of discretion in my toy buying habits I found myself overly critical of things that in the past I would have just "impulse purchased" without a second thought. It also lets me be more appreciative of the things I do eventually buy. Before when I bought tons and tons of junk I'd just "throw it on the pile" or stick it in a display case and leave it... now I actually relish my few toy purchases and they give me more entertainment because I get to spend more time with them. I've also saved literally thousands upon thousands of dollars, which has enabled me to do other, larger things with my spare "pocket money" finances. It's quite shocking and depressing when you do a tally and realize just how much money you were pissing away on... well... "the same old" crap.

[1 VF-1 2NV]

Great advice J...

[jenius]

VFTF1 makes a point I tried to make in another thread about the cost of oil. Americans are fond of citing the cost of oil as a global epidemic when it's really just localized to America. I think he gets a little off course when he starts discussing what's going on with the actual cash but that's a higher end economic debate (I think it's not really a supply issue with the American dollar, it's a demand issue caused by no one wanting to buy our debt after the mortgage backed security fiasco). One point beyond any debate is that the American economy is not doing so hot.

I know next to nothing of the Japanese economy but that seems to be more important for us Macross collectors. Has the yen been devaluing lately on its own (I know it's gone up about 20% in comparison to the dollar so I imagine the yen is still strong). If the yen is fine then oil prices shouldn't seem nearly as bad to the Japanese. If Japanese consumers still have disposable income than Macross manufacturers still have people to make toys for and we can keep leaching toys away through our importing.

[VFTF1]

I think it's not really a supply issue with the American dollar, it's a demand issue caused by no one wanting to buy our debt after the mortgage backed security fiasco

Well, the mortgage crisis was largely caused by Federal Reserve banking policy which did everything possible to guarantee that no matter how many crazy home loans a bank made, the government would gaurantee to bail them out. Is it any surprise that if the Feds guarantee to cover you no matter what the outcome of your enterprise, that this would create a lot of artificial investment - bad investment that would not happen if the government wasn't telling investors that they needn't worry about the consequences? The fact that no one wants to buy our debt is actually good - it means that in spite of what the "masters of the universe" at the Fed might think, their control only goes so far - there are other currencies and other players in the world economy. This might just help America because at some point the government will have to come to terms with economic reality.

this downturn in the economy is the perfect time for many of us to ween ourselves off of these crazy stupid buying habits we have. We should learn to close our wallets more often

While I respect the fact that J is making a good statement about how it pays to be frugal and how wise it is not to just waste money - I generally don't agree with this kind of thinking.

Why should WE "close our wallets" when we have done nothing wrong? Why shouldn't Wall Street investors who get bailed out by the government for bad decisions close THEIR wallets for a change?

Every time an economic turn down happens - elitist rich people start pontificating about how greedy "we" are, about how "we" need to reign in our huge unlimited desires, about how "we" are materialistic and how "we" should just be thankful for having food on the table and not complain.

This is a terrible thing - the majority of working people had nothing to do with creating this down-turn - heck, lots of times people vote for reasonable sounding candidates - but the candidates then turn around and lie and do something different (for example Reagan was elected to cut back government, but government under Reagan grew, recently the Democrats were ellected to Congress to get America out of Iraq, but the Surge happened) - I understand that sometimes things don't always work out - but why do "we" have to pay for it instead of them?

I just fundamentally do not believe that "we" have to tighten our wallets when the people who are responsible for this mess are living it up getting big government bail outs.

Look at Bear Sterns. Those guys ran their company into the ground, but the Federal Reserve bailed them out. Why? Because they are an "important part" of the economy and if they went under - then other "important sectors" of th economy would go under.

But in reality - what they mean by "important" is well connected - and therefore they get to be bailed out by our tax-dollars, and we get saddled with the debt.

So with all due respect - and I do respect the sincere argument of "better to be frugal and not spend-thrift" - but nope - we don't have to tighten our wallets - we should be able to buy lots of stuff and live happy comfortable and good lives - and IF the economy is in such a down turn that people need to be tightening their wallets - then let's see Wall Street tighting its' belts, and closing their wallets - and above all - let's see the Federal Reserve close its' wallet and stop handing money out as if the whole country was a Monopoly game board.

that's my two cents

VFTF1

[azrael]

It was only a matter of time. Bandai already announced higher prices on Gunpla a few months ago due to rising oil costs.

[JsARCLIGHT]

But all that "big picture" "high financial logic" talk does nothing to help the guy who wants to buy a Yamato valkyrie on his Burger King salary.

The consumer en masse is just as responsible for fueling the erratic market as the people who profit from it. By and large the consumer is the main driving factor. It's a two way street... you have a supplier and a demander. One preys off the other and it's a combination of their actions that causes the effects. If no one buys anything then you don't have a market, if people demand too much folks take notice and the value of that commodity rises. There is no "universal blame" for an economic situation, there is no "one guilty party"... everyone is partially to blame. Consumers who run out and purchase beyond their means on credit or purchase some commodity excessively then complain when the market turns against them are reaping the rewards of their own shortsighted spending. You don't run out and buy a horse then complain that everyone bought horses and now the price of hay is rising. As such you don't buy tons and tons of cheap junk you don't really honestly need then whine when their price rises. All these things we are "hurting for" are luxury material goods in the end. Your life is not going to fall apart because you couldn't purchase every single Yamato toy. We Americans are just so darned sensitive to our luxurious way of life that we interpret all these little middling things as "important" to our daily lives. Yes, our currency is indeed devaluing due to events beyond the scope of the common consumer but it's kind of shallow of us to whine that our designer clothes, SUVs and collector grade hi metal uber toys are rising in price.

I fully agree that we should "not be needing to cut back" but at the same time when the playing field tilts away from you, you should not be pointing fingers and asking yourself "what things can I decrease or alter so I can continue to spend on luxury items", you should simply ruck up and omit the luxury items. A minor ego discomfort in the short term reaping a more stable life. Given enough thought out spending, proper credit management at the consumer level, living within our means and restraint on behalf of everyone, consumer and "overlord" alike, many of the problems that spawn our current financial issues will self-correct given time.

[eugimon]

-----NOTE: I will now proceed to pontificate Feel free to disagree:)---------------

With all due respect - but this is just so utterly WRONG in terms of focus, and America and Americans are going to suffer if they keep up with this bad economic thinking.

The price of Oil is not "rising" astronomically - the value of the US Dollar is FALLING astronomically.

If American journalists would take the time to think and be reflective in their reporting (hah - like that'll ever happen) - they would find that the price of Oil counted in most major foriegn currencies, not to mention minor ones, has - on a percent basis - been substantially LOWER than the rise in the price of oil in US Dollars.

It is not oil, or any other good that is magically becoming more expensive - it is the American dollar which is becoming worthless.

Why?

Because the Federal Reserve has been on an inflationary binge to finance a vast welfare/warfare state. Fiat money (paper money) is inherently inflationary because central banks can always just "print more" - but it has become especially so in the United States where Americans a) (rightly) do not want to pay higher taxes to finance the warfare/welfare state and b) (wrongly) do not want to cut spending on either the warfare or welfare state and c) (terribly) continue to epxand inflationary spending - having the Fed finance the deficit through inflationary schemes, by selling T-Bills to foriegn countries, by their lunatic policy of buying bad morgage loans from banks in return to T-Bills (a policy that is as insane as it is novel).

During the lat 1970s, following massive Federal spending on warfare (Vietnam) and welfare (the "Great Society"), America paid for both of them with the onset of stagflation. Economic growth went down and prices went up (something that does not happen under normal circumstances, since whenever economies hit rough times, prices [and wages] fall as the market self corrects [think of it like a national 'going out of business sale' where excess intenvotry must 'go go go!']).

Nowadays, the same thing is happening because the same flawed policies are still being implemented - only with greater force.

Anyways - just check the rate of growth in the price of oil in foriegn currencies and compare it to the rate of growth in US Dollars. You will see that the reason this problem is so pressing for Americans is because while yes - Oil is going up - at the same time the US Dollar is drastically falling in value - which means that for Americans - Oil is going REALLY up.

I find it amusing, however, that CNN and the mainstream media in the States often act as if the fact that Oil hits 122 USD means the same thing for people in Russia or China as it does for people in the US.

When "122 USD" is worth less and less - then Oil rising to 122USD is only bad news for people who primarily operate using USD.

The real culprit is the Fed; and its' enablers in Congress who do nothing in terms of oversight of the institution.

How does this all play out in relation to Toy prices?

Think about it. If you have to give more and more US Dollars in order to buy Japanese Yen in order to buy Japanese toys - then are the Japanese toys becoming more expensive, or is it that your currency is just becoming Monopoly Money?

VFTF1

your arguement is only partially true. The value of the dollar has fallen around 10% in the last few years but the price of oil has gone up nearly 600%. More than can be accounted for the decline in the dollar or the decrease in supply (due to rising global demand).

The single largest reason for the spike in oil prices has to do with speculative buying. People think oil will go up in price, so they buy it and then, oil goes up in price.

As far as the Yen versus Dollar. This is all Reagan's fault. Back in the 80s, US manufacturers and the car industry in general began to be hammered by japanese imports. The dollar was worth more than the yen at the time and so american consumers began buying up bargain priced japanese imports. The car companies lobied and I believe Baker came up with the Plaza accord where the USA would ACTIVELY devalue the dollar against the yen. The Reagan administration argued this would simultaneously protect american markets while making american made goods more affordable and thus easier to sell in Japan. The japanese agreed and the dollar lost half of its value against the yen. Only things didn't work out that way, Americans still bought japanese made goods over American made goods, we just paid more and Japanese still bought japanese goods... but they also bought up a lot of american real estate and some companies... only they paid less.

PS: Oil is bought and sold in DOLLARS. That is, when someone buys a barrel of oil, they pay the nice OPEC man a fistful of dollars. That's what OPEC wants. So, if oil is trading at 122 USD, it costs 122 USD or the equivalent in euros or yuan or yen. So yes, the dollar is worth slightly less now than it was 8 years ago but again, 600% increase in the cost of oil far outstripes the gain of the euro or yen versus the dollar.

addendum to post script: "slightly less" is compared to the yen: in 2000, 1$ = 105 yen, 2008 1$= 101 yen (lowest point this year). The Euro on the other hand is worth something like 30% more now than when it was introduced in 1999.

Edited May 7, 2008 by eugimon

[JsARCLIGHT]

I should probably point out before this goes too much further that discussion of politics is verboten. I personally have no issue with the discussion of economic finance and how it relates to toy prices, but this is just advance warning to keep the topic away from political discussion.

[Mr March]

If you ask me (which no one does but I show up and talk anyway)

There are at least a few of us who notice you, don't feel bad. I always enjoy your posts, even if I don't always agree

[mechaninac]

...

As far as the Yen versus Dollar. This is all Reagan's fault. Back in the 80s, US manufacturers and the car industry in general began to be hammered by japanese imports. The dollar was worth more than the yen at the time and so american consumers began buying up bargain priced japanese imports. The car companies lobied and I believe Baker came up with the Plaza accord where the USA would ACTIVELY devalue the dollar against the yen. The Reagan administration argued this would simultaneously protect american markets while making american made goods more affordable and thus easier to sell in Japan. The japanese agreed and the dollar lost half of its value against the yen. Only things didn't work out that way, Americans still bought japanese made goods over American made goods, we just paid more and Japanese still bought japanese goods... but they also bought up a lot of american real estate and some companies... only they paid less.

In other words, regardless of the administration, whenever government decides that it needs to come up with a solution to a perceived problem, that solution invariably results in a bigger real problem down the line which, when allowed to fester long enough, generates a demand for yet more government intervention which creates further unforeseen circumstances, etc., ad nauseam, ad infinitum... and the taxpayers, producers and consumers alike, always get the shaft.

The corollary to that is to let the free market take its course in shaking out excesses and bad financial decisions.

Edit.: still sticking only to the economic side of the argument...

Edited May 7, 2008 by mechaninac

[VFTF1]

Yeah Mechaninac is right (IMO) - and I'm by no means making a "political" argument in the sense of saying one party or person is better and another is worse or something - and I'll try to keep it that way

I agree with your reasoning, JsArclight, about how consumers - if they act rashly, must then pay the price for their rashness.

But remember that what fuels the bad and rash actions of consumers and investors alike is that the government promises everyone a bail out. Fanie Mae and Freddie Mac are federally backed agencies; commercial banks are guaranteed that in the event that they run out of reserves - the Federal Reserve will bail them out. In fact, the whole banking system runs on a "fractional reserve system" - that is to say - on any given day, the bank has way less reserves on hand than it has money loaned out. If everyone suddenly decided to withdraw their money- the banking system would collapse.

It didn't used to be this way on a national scale. Sure; there were bad banks and dud products and bad weather and mosquitos in the summer - but the bad banks would go bust, no one would tolerate the dud products in the long run, the sun would sooner or later come out, and bug spray was developed.

Point is - deficiencies in the market would correct themselves. But then government stepped in with the federal reserve in 1912 - and notice that ever since then we've been on a roller coaster of economic boom and bust - this cycle is not natural - it is not a normal market process.

The Federal Reserve creates credit out of thin air - that "money" hits the market and acts as a stimulus - and investors THINK that aggregate demand is rising and therefore invest more, produce more etc etc - only the rise in aggregate demand is only nominal - it is not real - it's just pieces of paper and digits being pumped into the system - eventually it inflates the currency; thereby devaluing it and the boom turns into a bust.

But notice how this works - the guys closest to the Federal Reserve get the artificial "money" first - the big banks and whoever is connected to government (contractors etc) - they are at the top of this frenzy - and so they suffer least - and in any event - the Feds can always bail them out like with bear sterns. We're the ones at the bottom who get stuck with a fistfull of worthless dollars and high interest rates on mortgages, credit cards etc etc.

So again - whenever I hear that "we" have to tighten our belts, I just don't buy it. You and me didn't cause this downturn. Our actions in no way can be blamed for the downturn. If you argue that people are "speculative" or "spend too much" - then the reason is because they think it's not too much, and it's a secure thing - why? - because ultimately government has inflated the economy artificially. It it just stopped and got out of the way - then economic downturns would be periodic, would affect only certain industries at a time rather than effecting the entire economy negatively, and above all - they would happen for "normal reason" - aka real changes in consumer preferences, better competition from someone else, fires, accidents, innovation, corruption - everything that is normal (both bad and good) - but kept in proportion.

As to the thing about oil being sold in USD - not any more. Iran has been selling oil for Euro for the last year, and I am sure other OPEC/gulf states have followed suit.

Also - the reason people speculate that oil is going to cost more is because of all the instability in the middle east - so it's not a bad speculation to make - and I'm sure that now it's more dangerous to get that oil - so the costs also go up.

Nevertheless, the gas-price crisis is hitting the USA the hardest because of the weak dollar - not because of "high priced oil."

VFTF1

[eugimon]

again, the "weak dollar" is nothing compared to the 600% increase in the cost of oil. That's for everyone, not just americans, europeans aren't buying oil at 15 euros.

Other OPEC nations have not followed suit, OPEC trades in dollars:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/hard-currency/2008/01/10/

From Wiki:

Since currently worldwide oil sales are denominated in U.S. dollars, changes in the value of the dollar against other world currencies affect OPEC's decisions on how much oil to produce. For example, when the dollar falls relative to the other currencies, OPEC-member states receive smaller revenues in other currencies for their oil, causing substantial cuts in their purchasing power. After the introduction of the euro, pre-invasion Iraq decided it wanted to be paid for its oil in euros instead of US dollars causing OPEC to consider changing its oil exchange currency to euros, although after Iraq's invasion, the interim government reversed this policy, and the subsequent Iraq governments stuck to the US dollar.[16] Member states Iran[17] and Venezuela[18] have undergone similar shifts from the dollar to the Euro.

I confused iraq and iran there... iran is an OPEC nation, Iraq technically is, but their oil is not part of OPEC quotas.

Edited May 7, 2008 by eugimon

[JsARCLIGHT]

My belief lies in that the way to "correct" the issue is to put the people out of business or in a better case scenario get them to rethink their practices. The only way to do that is for the consumer to cease the purchase of their goods or services. The "market" exists and persists based on the the lowest pillar in it's structure, which is us, the consumers. Their actions and reactions are based on the anticipation that we will continue to spend and buy and consume. If we the consumer "rebel", then the market fails. In the end the government can only "bail out" a failing market so many times and our currency can only devalue so far. Eventually the cycle will be broken, it will either break itself or the consumer base will abandon it. It's downright arrogant accounting to believe that the influx of cash from consumer purchases will extend forever. Piss off the little man enough and he'll hang you out to dry.

To redirect though my main points are more to the notion that people should not "sacrifice" or re-arrange their finances in order to afford "toys". That is kind of dumb in my mind... to restrict yourself in other, possibly more important areas, simply so you can purchase toys. I actually know people who eat ramen and scrimp and save out of their food budgets so they can buy luxury goods. I know people who never go to the doctor or the dentist because they "need" that money to make their ridiculously high luxury car payments. To me, it's all about securing your necessities first then living within your means for your luxury items. If the new toy you want is too expensive for you to afford, don't take money out of your food budget or some other important budget just to buy a toy. Part of the problem is that we all have kind of become spoiled on the "good economy" prices of yesteryear and we are in a period of adjustment when we all must re-arrange our priorities and necessities. In a sense, we the toy collectors are kind of like the SUV drivers... we "bought in" and got used to a market where our hobby was relatively "affordable" and we indulged in it, but as the winds of change blow we have to change with them otherwise we will become slaves to our SUV... or toys in this case.

Edit: I also feel the need to add that a lot of folks have blurred the line between necessity and luxury so much that they sometimes forget which is which. I know several people who simply "cannot live" without a cell phone that has a hundred dollar a month plan or a uber high bandwidth internet connection, cable/satellite TV, or eating meals out most of the time. To a good degree we are all so "programmed" by the consumer society we live in that we have come to depend on our purchases too much, and it causes us emotional grief when faced with the inability to purchase more. To this degree I suppose my relative non-attachment to my material goods benefits me... I don't mind it so much when they vanish or I can't afford them. I am in the process of selling my '70 1/2 Camaro Z28 because I was going to buy something else, but with gas prices so high and the possibility of an uncomfortable future in store for my small business I'm probably just going to take the money from it's sale, roll it into a CD and wait it out.

[bandit29]

Ya I sell screws/fasteners and the costs are up and keep on going up..between steel, the low dollar, the cost of fuel, cost of oil..everything is a mess right now. Depending on the part, costs are up 30-70% from a year ago.

As far as toys go..they were overpriced before this all happened. 1/6 dolls or other toys(ahem...Macross) made out cheap plastic that cost over 100.00? More than 200.00 in some cases.. yeah right..

Edited May 7, 2008 by dejr8bud

[VFTF1]

Well - to strike a pleasant note - this is the environment I decided to start a business in

I guess I'm betting that the bottom is just around the corner - and even if things do get worse and stay bad for a few years...well - better to start poor and starving and work your way up to a feast than to make it easy at the start and have a train wreck a bit later

Besides - if I survive a wobbly economy and break even... I'm sure I'll do well once things pick up again.

(visions of this post being quoted in a history book about "The Onset of the Next Dark Ages: 2008-2098" now dashing through my mind... preface to the book: "One post on a toy fan board was telling of the mood in those times. People had become so accustomed to the economy "eventually" getting better and to long-term growth that they were willing to initiate new ventures in the face of obvious calamnity" ) :)

As to toys -

well - I personally don't think that I would save a lot by cutting down on toy/figure buying.

The reason is simple: I don't have a car, don't intend to buy one. I have very little clothing - although what I do have is high quality/designer stuff - but it's not a lot. I have books and DVDs, and like to buy movies and books - and models/toys - but that's about it for discretionary spending.

I guess what I'm getting at is that my discretionary spending is very focused - I don't buy every thing and anything that just happens to be in style/fashion. I have an MP3 player - sure - but his name is Soundwave Wouldn't have him otherwise.... I don't have computer games, am not a gamer...

I bet that most people work the same way - they don't randomly go out and splurge on stuff - they focus on things that they really enjoy.

And joy is a big time human need - so I certainly don't think I don't "need" the stuff

Finally - I don't much mind prices going up if I'm seeing my earnings rise as well...

But we'll see Ultimately we're all just helpless microcosms in a galaxy of crab-like monsters who want to kill us...

wait...

VFTF1

[JsARCLIGHT]

It sounds to me like you already have a good handle on your toy spending and you aren't opening your wallet for everything that comes down the pipe. It's hard to imagine for some folks but there are people out there who simply must buy things. They must get all the valkyries, they must have a complete collection of GI Joes, they must have three of everything so they can have the same toy "mint", displayed in vehicle mode and displayed in robot mode. It is most certainly their prerogative to do these things but it is a lot of "unnecessary" spending that if they cut down on, they'd save tons of money. I myself used to be like that... if I bought into a line, I had to have them all. If I liked a show, I had to have all the things from the show. If a new toy of something I liked came out even if it was outrageously expensive, ugly and all around a very bad "deal" I'd still buy it without batting an eye. It was only after I realized how much money I was wasting on this hobby that I curtailed my spending tenfold and became very scrutinizing of every potential purchase I make. Since then I've saved thousands of dollars that I would have otherwise frittered away on toys.

Personally I feel there are several other people who are "like I was" out there who don't even realize it. Toy collecting can be an unhealthy addiction just as any "real" addiction and a downturn in the economy can be a good motivator to ween people off of the "toy bottle". I mean, I got to the point that I was depressed that I was a 30 odd year old man spending more on toys in one month than a family of four spent for Christmas. And then when I started adding it all up and seeing what else I could have had for all that money it really put the zap on me.

[eriku]

I have a pretty good handle on my toy spending, too. Aside from a cheap home internet connection, NetFlix, a few video games per year (usually used) and one to three CDs per month (also typically used) it's about the only luxury spending I do. I have no car payment, no cell phone, no cable TV. My wife doesn't really do much luxury spending either.

I've never been a completist with any toy line, and will only buy one mold of a toy I like. If I do buy a repaint, I'll sell off the original toy to make room for it. For some reason it bugs me to have more than one mold of something in my collection, which is why I'll never have all of the Transformers 'seekers' or a full set of valks. Even the new Ninja Turtle figures I can only get myself to buy one of them. I'm very thankful for that though, it's like a natural safeguard.

[VFTF1]

Well - if I had the money - I'd definitely buy more toys/models - that's a given - but given that I have X cash on hand for this stuff- I'm compelled to choose between lines.

I was once just a Transformers collector- that was fairly easy - just bought everything TF related and that's it.

Things realyl started getting complicated when I suddenly became a Macross, Gundam, Soul of Chogokin, Revoltech collector .. oh - and remained a TF collector.

That's when questions like "20 Armada toys or two 1/48s?" started going through my head - and the answer was obvious ! So out went Armada...

So in this sense - expanding into other lines helped me really try to appreciate the finer qualities of each line instead of just getting "everything"

Although with Macross - you must admit that there's actually very little - volume wise - that Yamato puts out - at least compared to Gundam or Transformers.

Whenever I can splurge - I do - and I have great fun doing it.

VFTF1

[David Hingtgen]

I'm pretty "collectoritis-proof". There are lines/groups of which I may have 5--and the whole line is only 6 or 7. I bought only the ones I like---no matter how close I may be to "completing" some category etc. When it comes to planes, I may have 19 of the 20 models made of a certain airline--but I'm picky, so I'm not buying that 20th one. I have NO desire to "complete" anything. Buy only exactly what I like, not "sets" of stuff I like that includes stuff I may not like.

[Scream Man]

i run half/half on the copmpleting thing. It depends how many ina set i want in the first place. Also sometimes something i wasnt sure Id want i turn out liking a great deal, so it can be a tricky game.

As for expensive toys; I have found as i got older that my tastes have definitely shifted to the more pricey stuff i buy now; Macross is debateably the worst for it, at nearly $300 a toy sometimes. Saint Seiya stuff averages out between $50 and $100. i used to import GI Joe: Sigma 6, which was costing me close to $30 a figure, and i pretty much collected all of those (Not quite, but 4/5's of the line.) Transformers....i got most of them, and wish I hadnt actually. i got alot of Armada/Enegron, and ended up stuck with some i dont like and selling others cheap. Marvel Legends got worse after they went to Hasbro, and more expensive and harder to find. And now Im into the Gundam models....

i guess my point is that the toy industry has constantly been going up in price and quality. I have collected my whole life. There has never been a time i "got out of it" or ceased collecting. I have never noticed a huge hike in prices or anything, just a gradual increase. Also, in australia it all costs more anyway.

Another hike wont stop me from buying.

[eugimon]

If I had any interest in investing money in the market my attention to those investments would be just as time consuming. Investing money in the market is just as much of an addiction like anything else, "By making your money work for you, you can live the lifestyle of your dreams!" Sure.... more money results in more headache & worries. I could say acquiring a collection is probably a safer addiction than any other vices. I believe everyone here has a valid point and it really boils down to the person whose interest & hobbies does not complicate their lives. It has complicated my life to the point where if I had a wild notion to move to New Zealand then the things that I've acquired will drag me down. IMO It really boils down to materialism is an indirect form of slavery. So sell your stuff and my advice to the newbies "run... run away!"

the things you own, end up owning you.

[eugimon]

don't kid yourself... your chained as well!!

I like being owned.

heh... I was quoting Fight Club, seemed apropo to what you were saying.

[Scream Man]

Ive never undertsood collecting toys as an investment. Its an iffy proposition, depending on how well it stores, demand for the item, initial price and availablility.

i have something like 4 toys in boxes, and thats largely because i have nowhere to put them out on display. I also have a box of toys in packets to give to my kids some day.

As for the "things you own.." quote; I have long since become comfortable with the knowledge of my own commercialism.

[eugimon]

Yeah, toys are toys, I buy them because I like em, not because I think they're going to pay for my kid's college education. And if it comes to that, well, my kid can take out loans like I did.

[jet660]

I think it really comes down to whether you are a impulsed or smart buyer. Granted we all want to have a larger disposable income to buy the things what we want. For me, I really like to complete a series or collection or that I really like, but I don't try to buy everything all at once. For example, it took me 5 long years to complete the Transformers Collection 0 to 21. Many of them I bought when I was in HK traveling. You think spending stuff in US is bad, try HK. Its like anime paradise for okatus. I nearly went broke everytime I visit there. I think as Americans we should be more smart in buy goods, whether it is toys or every common items. Things are not as cheap as it was in the 80's or 90's, but is should not deter us finding the best deals or waiting longer than usual if we put in the time to search and look for that we enjoy. Last week, I just found an R2 Macross DVD for $10 and Mac+ Int. version and original Macross VHS (JP verison) for $1 each. Last Dec, I visited NY and found the original DRYL Movie and Perfect Edition VHS for $1 each. I would say good things will come if you have the patience to let it come to you.

Those who buy toys as an investment are going to be in for a disappointment. Rarely does any toy have any long term financial gain. Toys keeps me young at heart in this crazy and mad adult world.

[Beware of Blast]

don't kid yourself... your chained as well!!

No kidding!

[Mr March]

the things you own, end up owning you.

I love it

TYLER: Do you know what a Yammie is?

JACK: It's a Transforming Valkyire.

TYLER: It's a toy, just a toy. Now why do guys like you and I know what a Yammie is? Is this essential to our survival? In the hunter-gatherer sense of the word? No. What are we then?

JACK: Macross fans.

Hehehe

[misterryno]

the things you own, end up owning you.

GREAT QUOTE!!!

[bsu legato]

the things you own, end up owning you.

I dub thee eugimon "The Sphinx"