Aircraft Vs Thread 4

[kalvasflam]

IMHO A350 simply isn't a threat. The 787 has a tremendous order book because airlines want a more fuel-efficient plane as soon as possible---not 5 years from now. Even if the 787 was delayed by 2 years somehow, it'd still be in service well before the A350. Boeing may be depending on the 787, but Airbus is depending on the A350. (Both REALLY make their money from their small planes though---737 and A320 are still going strong)

CO, NW, ANA, QF, etc are not going to cancel due to a 6-month delay, to order a different plane that'll arrive 60 months later.

The only real questions (big order-wise) are American and United---American is utterly undecided, and the rumor was United might go for the A350 simply due to the 787 order book being so full that if you order now you won't get any until the A350's out. Early 787 customers won't give up their delivery slots for anything, but if you haven't ordered yet---it's going to be a long wait.

It is true that the guys who are in the delivery slots for the first four years ain't gonna cancel. The cancellation risks occur for guys who are now suddenly in the same time slots that are available to Airbus. When you push the customers out six months, it has an effect down the road. Customers in the last six months of the queue might suddenly realize that there are open slots with Airbus earlier in the year, and if Airbus offers enough incentives, it might induce the latest takers to switch.

The worst case right now is BA that just signed an agreement with Boeing. There are still 12 (or was it 18) more options for 787, those might not be taken up at all. Worse yet, because of the push out, undecided might swing over to Airbus, especially if there are good offers. Effectively that means the break even time for the project is pushed out by at least six months, probably more. And the delay means probably lost business. And lost profits.

Remember Airbus is in the same boat with the A380, except they have the advantage of only having to compete with the 747-8I. But that hasn't helped their break even or profitability.

There is no threat as far as the first four years worth of customers, the threat emerges further down the road. I am of course assuming that Airbus learned its lesson and the A350 goes out on schedule.

Edited October 10, 2007 by kalvasflam

[David Hingtgen]

Bigger planes would help in the faa control problem.

Absolutely. But physical lack of large planes isn't really the problem. The problem is going from 1 757 to 5 ERJ's. Same number of people, but takes 5x as much runway/gate/ATC time. The airlines claim having more flights, more often, on smaller planes gives people more choice/convienence. Except, now that this leads to 3 hour delays all the time, it really isn't working.

Best example:

Some years ago I flew to Seattle via Chicago. It used to be 1 DC-10 flight for the 11AM-ish departure. But it had recently changed to 2 757's. Departed 1 min apart, same airline, same route. Gate agents announced every 5 mins to people which plane was which flight--as they had almost identical flight numbers, flew the same place/route, and were at adjacent gates! How is that helping the crowded airways? Also, there is almost no situation where replacing one old plane with two newer ones will make it more efficient---maybe 1 707 with 2 737-600's, but that's not going to happen.

It's even worse now, we've got small cities getting 50-seat jets leaving half-empty every 45 mins, instead of a full 727 every 3 hours.

I think most people would gladly trade the "convienence" of more departures, for fewer depatures that WERE ON TIME. How is 7 flights a day, 2 hours apart, but always 2 hours late, any better than 3 flights a day, 4 hours apart?

[Nied]

And so it begins....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/boei...1A9405123DC0%7D

Let the penalty round commence.... any bets on whether there is an additional delay?

This will kill ANA's idea of using the planes for the Olympics...

I wonder how many people at Airbus are laughing their asses off right now.

And it keeps going. They've admited the systems integration thing now too, though once again they are downplaying it. If this keeps dribbling out I can actually tell you guys how I know this stuff. I can say that Boeing has put thier engineers into "Death March" mode to get things finished anywhere near in time. Fun thing about the fastners: If you look at some of the close ups of the 787 roll out there are more than a few missing.

[kalvasflam]

every company on the outside can look great, but on the inside could be an utter disaster, and every now and then, the stuff going on inside comes out.... and then we have a mess.

i.e. Enron, Worldcom

there is no doubt that Boeing marketing and sales are fantastic, but their leadership is highly questionable, McNerdy ruined 3M culture before Boeing, and I'm guessing he'll probably help torch Boeing too at this rate.

I think Boeing should've owned up a little earlier to the delays... at least I hope they did it privately to their lead customers. If not, they could be in real trouble.

[Nied]

every company on the outside can look great, but on the inside could be an utter disaster, and every now and then, the stuff going on inside comes out.... and then we have a mess.

i.e. Enron, Worldcom

there is no doubt that Boeing marketing and sales are fantastic, but their leadership is highly questionable, McNerdy ruined 3M culture before Boeing, and I'm guessing he'll probably help torch Boeing too at this rate.

I think Boeing should've owned up a little earlier to the delays... at least I hope they did it privately to their lead customers. If not, they could be in real trouble.

I didn't mean to imply that Boeing is as bad as Enron or Worldcom. I'd put thier problems closer to Airbus' (maybe a hair short of where Airbus is). I'm still estimating that they won't make be able to make the first 787 delivery until sometime in 2008.

[Fatalist]

The MCAS Miramar air show is this weekend. I plan on going tomorrow, if it isnt raining. lots of pics to take.

[kalvasflam]

I didn't mean to imply that Boeing is as bad as Enron or Worldcom. I'd put thier problems closer to Airbus' (maybe a hair short of where Airbus is). I'm still estimating that they won't make be able to make the first 787 delivery until sometime in 2008.

Those were just names I had on top of my head... I understand that Boeing is far better off than those two entities. But still the public relations could use a little work, accordingly, Qantas was told about a month ago that everything was still on schedule. Not exactly the best sign.... I wonder if Boeing was trying to swing the BA 787 decision.

[Nied]

Those were just names I had on top of my head... I understand that Boeing is far better off than those two entities. But still the public relations could use a little work, accordingly, Qantas was told about a month ago that everything was still on schedule. Not exactly the best sign.... I wonder if Boeing was trying to swing the BA 787 decision.

I think Boeing's problem is that their marketing department gets ahead of the rest of the company. Remember the Sonic Cruiser? It was going to cruise at Mach .98 but still have better fuel economy than older airliners, have lower operating costs, meet stringent new European noise regulations, have supersonic dash capability, and be a delicous desert topping.

The MCAS Miramar air show is this weekend. I plan on going tomorrow, if it isnt raining. lots of pics to take.

That should be a good show which IIRC will feature a Raptor. Let us know how it was.

Edited October 14, 2007 by Nied

[F-ZeroOne]

Happy 60th, Mach One plus:

http://www.edwards.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123071181

[RFT]

First A380 delivered to customer, will enter service on the 25th.

they expect to make 13 aircraft next year and 48 a year in 2009 and 2010.

[Warmaker]

Blue Angel low level flight in San Francisco Bay!

Naturally, my former hometown of San Francisco being San Francisco, there are a few offended people of seeing military flights in the US

[Nied]

Blue Angel low level flight in San Francisco Bay!

Naturally, my former hometown of San Francisco being San Francisco, there are a few offended people of seeing military flights in the US

A very few. The bill trying to ban the Blue Angels from Fleet Week was shot down twice by a 2-1 margin. Of course while places like Defensetech love to bring up the fact that one grandstanding board supervisor trying desperately to get attention for his hopeless mayoral run brought up an anti Blue Angles bill, but they stay silent when it fails miserably. It doesn't fit with their ZOMG! TEH LIBRULS HATE TEH MILATARY!!!!!11!one preconception.

[Apollo Leader]

Blue Angel low level flight in San Francisco Bay!

Naturally, my former hometown of San Francisco being San Francisco, there are a few offended people of seeing military flights in the US

That was awesome! Wonder if that's on Youtube yet?

[kalvasflam]

A very few. The bill trying to ban the Blue Angels from Fleet Week was shot down twice by a 2-1 margin. Of course while places like Defensetech love to bring up the fact that one grandstanding board supervisor trying desperately to get attention for his hopeless mayoral run brought up an anti Blue Angles bill, but they stay silent when it fails miserably. It doesn't fit with their ZOMG! TEH LIBRULS HATE TEH MILATARY!!!!!11!one preconception.

Bah, in SF, if you bash the military, that's usually a good thing. I was a little disappointed at the fleet week parade of ships though. What happened to the aircraft carrier that typically comes along? Are they stretched that thinly?

[Nied]

That was awesome! Wonder if that's on Youtube yet?

It was even more awesome in person. Especially when the second solo comes in right over your head at about the same speed/altitude (god I'm so happy I showed up early and got a good spot right at show center).

[Warmaker]

Bah, in SF, if you bash the military, that's usually a good thing. I was a little disappointed at the fleet week parade of ships though. What happened to the aircraft carrier that typically comes along? Are they stretched that thinly?

It had been a long time since I attended Fleet Week in the SF area.

How long ago? When I was a kid and my Dad took me aboard the USS New Jersey, BB-62

[Nied]

Bah, in SF, if you bash the military, that's usually a good thing. I was a little disappointed at the fleet week parade of ships though. What happened to the aircraft carrier that typically comes along? Are they stretched that thinly?

Well again that's the story you see pushed a lot in certain circles but having lived here for over three years now I haven't seen it. Defencetech seemed to think the lack of a carrier was an FU because the navy thinks SF is anti military (of course their own inaccurate reporting on the subject wouldn't have anything to do with it), but I'm inclined to believe it had more to do with being stretched to thinly right now.

Edited October 17, 2007 by Nied

[Warmaker]

Well again that's the story you see pushed a lot in certain circles but having lived here for over three years now I haven't seen it. Defencetech seemed to think the lack of a carrier was an FU because the navy thinks SF is anti military (of course thier own inacruate reporting on the subject wouldn't have anything to do with it), but I'm inclined to believe it had more to do with being stretched to thinly right now.

We're veering off into another direction for the thread but I'll leave this portion with my experience.

I arrived in SF from the Philippines in 1980. I had went to school there until 5th Grade, but always went there to visit friends and such as a Teenager and all. But even when we lived outside SF, my family was always in the Bay Area. I didn't leave the Bay until I joined the USMC in 1993.

During my time living in the SF Bay Area through the 80s thru early 90s, and from checking the news in the 90s, there was no "Anti-Military" feel to the region despite its history during Vietnam.

It only started at "9/11," even as early as Afghanistan / OEF. That's when it started happening again.

As for the lack of a fleet and all in the Bay, that was all part of the massive series of base closures with the end of the Cold War. The SF Bay Area used to have as many military installations as Southern California did. NAS Alameda, Treasure Island, Presidio Army Base, Mare Island Naval Shipyard in Vallejo. All gone now, and closed very quickly in the early to mid 90s. The military presence was essentially gone before 2000. Travis AFB is the nearest military base in Fairfield, but that's nowhere near the Bay Area.

[Nied]

It only started at "9/11," even as early as Afghanistan / OEF. That's when it started happening again.

I don't want to veer too much into politics so I'll keep it brief. People on both sides of the political divide should be careful not to mistake disagreements over foreign policy with being anti-military.

[Phyrox]

I don't want to veer too much into politics so I'll keep it brief. People on both sides of the political divide should be careful not to mistake disagreements over foreign policy with being anti-military.

Amen to that.

And now for something completely different:

One photo that is beautiful for its composition, and one for its subject matter.

I could look at that Ho IX photo all day.

[kalvasflam]

Anyone see the inside shots of the A380 and SIA's beyond first class cabins?

Those looked pretty incredible, but holy smoke, at $10K (or something like that... inaugural pricing I think) a seat for a trip like Sydney to Singapore, that's expensive. And the CEO says that he would not prefer to see anything racy happening in the double bed cabin...

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/15/business/airbus.php

I guess this would make mile high club a bit easier, but I wonder if it also means that these little cabins are sound proof.

Edited October 17, 2007 by kalvasflam

[Nied]

Anyone see the inside shots of the A380 and SIA's beyond first class cabins?

Those looked pretty incredible, but holy smoke, at $10K (or something like that... inaugural pricing I think) a seat for a trip like Sydney to Singapore, that's expensive. And the CEO says that he would not prefer to see anything racy happening in the double bed cabin...

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/15/business/airbus.php

I guess this would make mile high club a bit easier, but I wonder if it also means that these little cabins are sound proof.

If you don't want nookie on your airplane why are you showing it off with champaigne strawberries, and frigging rose petals! I'm sorry but that combo of items is not desinged to put you to sleep (although I suppose in a round about way you will get tired )

[Ratchet]

Well again that's the story you see pushed a lot in certain circles but having lived here for over three years now I haven't seen it. Defencetech seemed to think the lack of a carrier was an FU because the navy thinks SF is anti military (of course their own inaccurate reporting on the subject wouldn't have anything to do with it), but I'm inclined to believe it had more to do with being stretched to thinly right now.

I was born and raised(reside) in "FRISCO" and this place is anti-military to the bone. Mayor "prettyboy" Newsom is trying to clean up the image of SF as a anti-military city, but that's not going to fly. Too many so called liberals, outcasts, transplants, and aging hippies here. This is the same retard city that prevented the USS Missouri from finding a permanent home there. That would have been sweet having a BB to visit once in a while and the revenue to the city ?! It also pisses me off that the Presidio was closed by the U.S. Army and I actually don't blame the government for leaving that beautiful base. You go to any other U.S. city and for the most part, they support the military ( I should know, I've been welcomed a lot and thanked for wearing my uniform and serving this country ON MY OWN discretion).

San Francisco the past year:

Whined about the Blue Angels

Tried to ban high school kids attempting to join ROTC (which apparently isn't going to work)

Constant whining about the war in Iraq/Afghanistan/Immigration on a daily basis

Bay Area whining about flags being put up in honor of dead soldiers next to a freeway

and .....oh yeah, a bunch of U.S. Marines couldn't even walk around Oakland Airport a month ago. As a soldier, I've utilized that airport a lot and we were never stopped even with weapons in our hands. Why the special treatment to my MARINES BROTHERS/SISTERS? Retarded Bay Area.

Edited October 17, 2007 by Ratchet

[kalvasflam]

If you don't want nookie on your airplane why are you showing it off with champaigne strawberries, and frigging rose petals! I'm sorry but that combo of items is not desinged to put you to sleep (although I suppose in a round about way you will get tired )

Exactly.... heh heh, but you have to admit, on an extremely long flight, this combo could be fun. Too bad they didn't put up a shower in that cabin.

[Nied]

Mayor "prettyboy" Newsom is trying to clean up the image of SF as a anti-military city, but that's not going to fly. Too many so called liberals, outcasts, transplants, and aging hippies here. This is the same retard city that prevented the USS Missouri from finding a permanent home there. That would have been sweet having a BB to visit once in a while and the revenue to the city ?!

We didn't have the facilities to properly support a BB floating meuseum in the city, nor the spare money to build them. That more than anything else is what determined it.

San Francisco the past year:

Whined about the Blue Angels

No loser Supervisor Chris Daly whined about the Blue Angels after accusing Gavin Newsom of being a cocaine addict did nothing for Daly's mayoral campaign. Of course his whining was about as effective since his bill to ban the Blue Angels was shot down by the board of supervisors (SF's name for city council) twice by overwhelming margins.

Tried to ban high school kids attempting to join ROTC (which apparently isn't going to work)

No tried to remove JROTC as an official school program to protest the fact that DoD policy discriminates against a non-insignifcant portion of our popluation.

Constant whining about the war in Iraq/Afghanistan/Immigration on a daily basis

Again see my comments about mistaking foreign policy disagreements for being anti-military. Supporting the troops does not equal supporting the war in Iraq.

Bay Area whining about flags being put up in honor of dead soldiers next to a freeway

This is the first I heard of it. Do you have a news story?

and .....oh yeah, a bunch of U.S. Marines couldn't even walk around Oakland Airport a month ago. As a soldier, I've utilized that airport a lot and we were never stopped even with weapons in our hands. Why the special treatment to my MARINES BROTHERS/SISTERS? Retarded Bay Area.

Again have a news story to back this up?

[Ratchet]

We didn't have the facilities to properly support a BB floating meuseum in the city, nor the spare money to build them. That more than anything else is what determined it.

No loser Supervisor Chris Daly whined about the Blue Angels after accusing Gavin Newsom of being a cocaine addict did nothing for Daly's mayoral campaign. Of course his whining was about as effective since his bill to ban the Blue Angels was shot down by the board of supervisors (SF's name for city council) twice by overwhelming margins.

No tried to remove JROTC as an official school program to protest the fact that DoD policy discriminates against a non-insignifcant portion of our popluation.

Again see my comments about mistaking foreign policy disagreements for being anti-military. Supporting the troops does not equal supporting the war in Iraq.

This is the first I heard of it. Do you have a news story?

Again have a news story to back this up?

Google it RED SOX fan. Go SAN FRANCISCO Giants.

but having lived here for over three years now

*LOL*

What's this "we" stuff? You weren't even here in the 80s when the Missouri was docking in my city and don't think for a minute I believe SF doesn't have the facility to support a ship *lol*. SF used to be a major naval shipyard way past WW2.

Edited October 18, 2007 by Ratchet

[Nied]

Google it RED SOX fan. Go SAN FRANCISCO Giants.

Nice red herring.

You made the claim I'm not gonna do your research for you. I'll be perfectly willing to accept your concession if you can't back up your claims.

*LOL*

What's this "we" stuff? You weren't even here in the 80s when the Missouri was docking in my city and don't think for a minute I believe SF doesn't have the facility to support a ship *lol*. SF used to be a major naval shipyard way past WW2.

Yeah and those shipyards were torn down, and rebulding them costs what? Oh yeah money, money the city doesn't have right now being in debt and all.

[Ratchet]

Nice red herring.

You made the claim I'm not gonna do your research for you. I'll be perfectly willing to accept your concession if you can't back up your claims.

Yeah and those shipyards were torn down, and rebulding them costs what? Oh yeah money, money the city doesn't have right now being in debt and all.

Whatever, transplant. I'm not going to get worked up over someone who hasn't been living in my city that long to know any better. For someone who's living in my city THE LAST 3 YEARS, you sure don't know jack squat. Peace out bean town dude. Try reading SFGATE.com more and stay current. Also, try wearing a U.S. Armed Forces uniform from any of it's branches, then I'll give you some credibility when it comes to talking about the Military.

Edited October 18, 2007 by Ratchet

[Nied]

Whatever, transplant. I'm not going to get worked up over someone who hasn't been living in my city to know any better. For someone who's living in my city THE LAST 3 YEARS, you sure don't know jack squat. Peace out bean town dude. Try reading SFGATE.com more and stay current.

Concession acepted.

[Ratchet]

Re-read my edit.

By the way, I'm a Giants fan, but I'm rooting for the Indians (3-1 over the Sox) in their series with the over-hyped Red Sox. Too bad the Yankees aren't in it anymore. I hope my boy, Barry Bonds, goes to the Yankees. That would be icing on the cake.

Edited October 18, 2007 by Ratchet

[Nied]

Re-read my edit.

Ah an Ad-hominem. That's certainly much better than, you know, stupid things like facts and evidence!

[Ratchet]

Ah an Ad-hominem. That's certainly much better than, you know, stupid things like facts and evidence!

GO INDIANS!!!!!!

[yellowlightman]

Excellent job derailing the thread and making yourself look like an idiot, Ratchet. You do a disservice to the other serving men and women in uniform by acting like a moron.

[Phyrox]

Excellent job derailing the thread and making yourself look like an idiot, Ratchet. You do a disservice to the other serving men and women in uniform by acting like a moron.

Damn, beat me to it.

[Ratchet]

I posted my 2 cents and somebody dissed me. Forgive me for responding in kind.

By the way, atleast I'm serving my country and I will retire wearing my uniform. Yeah....I'm a disservice to my uniform, the patients I take care of, and my community.

But you guys are right...we are getting off the subject aren't we?

Edited October 18, 2007 by Ratchet