Aircraft Vs Thread 3

[kalvasflam]

Regardless of the failings of the A380 now, Airbus will ultimately do well, because there is really not a competitor out there that can match the A380. The 747-8 just doesn't quite cut it I think. With Airbus, they can afford to screw things up with A380, because fundamentally, who else is there in the market?

Now having said that, the problem is that the decrease in earnings is going to hurt them on the stock market, but they should be pushing ahead with A350 development. Worst case, they go crying to the EU for more subsidies, and the EU can't afford to let EADS's primary business unit fail too badly, so they'll provide subsidies for the A350 development to keep Airbus afloat.

On the other hand, Boeing can't screw up at all with the 787. They've announced the plane for almost two years now, maiden flight is next year if I recall correctly. Then first deliveries come in 2008. If they have even one snafu, they're in trouble, and they set all their customers back. If you look at the Boeing order books, there are some majors that haven't ordered at all yet. BA, United, AA, Luftansa, they all come to mind. Given that the Boeing books is full up until 2012. The majors figure they can wait a few years to see how Airbus does before committing to replacement aircraft. I'm positive that Luftansa and some of the other major European airlines will support Airbus even if it delays new planes in their fleet for a few years.

So when you sum it all up, Boeing has far more to lose if it screws up. With Airbus, like I said, the 747-8 just isn't a threat at all, and there is nothing but upside for them.

As for other manufacturers for airlines... my question is whom? None of the others can build a 787, A350, or an A380 now, they're all still focused on regional jets.

[Retracting Head Ter Ter]

What exactly is it about the wiring that is causing them delays of over a year?

Just hire Macgyver...

Edited October 4, 2006 by Retracting Head Ter Ter

[David Hingtgen]

The quantities of wiring are so massive, they are causing EM interference etc with themselves.

Also, the sheer weight. Since TWA800, wiring regulations have changed, and Airbus' solution was never seen as good enough, so they had to change again. And the A380 needs literally tons of it, and it's heavier than they thought. Sure, it's only like (pure guess) 1 gram per meter heavier--but it adds up real fast. And they are needing to use more of it than they thought--literally miles more wiring.

Also, sheer space. It just plain doesn't fit. There isn't enough room in th walls and floor to fit the wiring for that many lights, fans, TV's, etc.

Airbus has run into the aircraft equivalent of the square/cube law. There is simply not enough space to support that much wiring for that many functions. If there were no in-flight entertainment, or simply 70's style "single headphone channel for the movie and nothing else" then it'd probably be ok.

The prototypes don't have this problem, as they are basically empty hulks with no support for passengers. But of course, when they are retofitted for eventual delivery, they'll have that problem too. (Though Airbus might just want to make them freighters, if there needs to be serious work to accomodate the wiring changes)

[the white drew carey]

I tell you what, just give me a plane with a comfy seat and I'm fine. Screw the movies and screw the radio channels.

[Phyrox]

I tell you what, just give me a plane with a comfy seat and I'm fine. Screw the movies and screw the radio channels.

I agree, but they'd rather spend money on cramming more "entertainment" into the seats than less people into the tube. I suppose it's wise business, but if anyone could come up with a business model that could sustain an airline with no frills but truely comfortable accomodations the world would beat a path to their door. I know I would.

[Retracting Head Ter Ter]

I agree, but they'd rather spend money on cramming more "entertainment" into the seats than less people into the tube. I suppose it's wise business, but if anyone could come up with a business model that could sustain an airline with no frills but truely comfortable accomodations the world would beat a path to their door. I know I would.

Well, airlines don't make the bulk of their money from cattle class. Most major airlines now have pretty comfortable business and first class.

Shut the people up with mass entertainment so that they ignore the lousy living conditions. Think this tactic has been in use for a long time...

Edited October 5, 2006 by Retracting Head Ter Ter

[kalvasflam]

I tell you what, just give me a plane with a comfy seat and I'm fine. Screw the movies and screw the radio channels.

Yeah? Have you tried those long ass international flights of 10 or more hours? Besides, too many people would revolt if there was no tv, it's like a damn entitlement for the cattle class. Imagine what would happen to all the JetBlue customers if they decided no more DirecTV.

I heard that Singapore Airline is getting compensation for this delay. I wonder how much. I know the airlines have got to all be loving this delay. First, they know they have Airbus over a barrel, because Airbus needs be get the revenue in order to build up A350, and second, the airlines are going to squeeze a bunch of concessions out of Airbus, so I wonder what the actual selling price after all of the compensation that Airbus will be stuck paying out. None of them will cancel orders, besides, it's just unlikely since these guys will have a need for these jumbos for these long point hauls and they can't afford to give Boeing too much of a leg up.

The funny thing is if Airbus launched the Cargo version of the A380 first, they would've been far better off, and even Emirates would've been pleased.

But on the other hand, Singapore Air must have a pretty big black eye now since they even have a webpage dedicated to the A380. I hope the drawing winner(s) aren't too disappointed with the flight delay of six or more months.

[Sumdumgai]

I hate long flights. I hate transfer flights more though. But, man, it's an 11-12 hour flight to get to California from Paris, France and it sucks so hard. I only watch the movies because they're there, and most of the time they show crappy movies.

I'm with the white drew carey, give me comfortable seating in cattle class, and screw the crappy films and radio.

[buddhafabio]

I hate long flights. I hate transfer flights more though. But, man, it's an 11-12 hour flight to get to California from Paris, France and it sucks so hard. I only watch the movies because they're there, and most of the time they show crappy movies.

I'm with the white drew carey, give me comfortable seating in cattle class, and screw the crappy films and radio.

tell me about it. nothing like flying for 24hours in a 747 from okinawa to stlouis

[F-ZeroOne]

Interesting Typhoon tid-bit from the Eurofighter forums - apparently the Typhoon will be getting the 27mm cannon, plus relevant training, in RAF service. This is apparently due to current operational experience involving Harriers which is causing air/ground force co-operation problems.

Go ahead, punks. Make our day.

[Mislovrit]

On the other hand, Boeing can't screw up at all with the 787. They've announced the plane for almost two years now, maiden flight is next year if I recall correctly. Then first deliveries come in 2008. If they have even one snafu, they're in trouble, and they set all their customers back.

Screwing up in and by itself won't Boeing, it's how it handle the situation(s) with the customers which will make or break the company. Given how badly Airbus botched up the A380 and customer relations, Boeing can afford a few minor setbacks.

[David Hingtgen]

The only real difference between Boeing and Airbus is customer service, and that's worth a LOT to an airline.

Got a 5th hand 27-year-old 737-200 that needs a gear door hinge that hasn't been made since 1983? Boeing will scour the ends of the earth to find one, and get it to you in 12 hours.

Airbus tends not to answer your call once the warranty's up. (Airliners tend to have 3 or 4 year warranties like cars, ironically)

Canadair/Bombardier has a similar issue. Airlines tend to like the CRJ a lot, and think it's superior in many ways. (not all ways, it's the opposite of STOL). But, parts/service is such an issue many have switched to Embraer's ERJ family. They just can't keep the CRJ's fixed due to raw availability of parts from the manufacturer--and the parts they CAN get are overpriced.

Post-purchase support is incredibly important to an airline--if they buy a plane, they tend to operate it for 20 to 30 years--unlike people who buy a new car the moment the old one's paid for. And they expect the plane to still be 99% reliable 25 years after purchase, with no loss of performance.

Engine support-wise, PW is the best, followed by GE, then RR. RR costs more, harder to fix, and generally can only be fixed in the few "official" RR repair shops--but they are more reliable to start with.

[kalvasflam]

The only real difference between Boeing and Airbus is customer service, and that's worth a LOT to an airline.

Got a 5th hand 27-year-old 737-200 that needs a gear door hinge that hasn't been made since 1983? Boeing will scour the ends of the earth to find one, and get it to you in 12 hours.

Airbus tends not to answer your call once the warranty's up. (Airliners tend to have 3 or 4 year warranties like cars, ironically)

Canadair/Bombardier has a similar issue. Airlines tend to like the CRJ a lot, and think it's superior in many ways. (not all ways, it's the opposite of STOL). But, parts/service is such an issue many have switched to Embraer's ERJ family. They just can't keep the CRJ's fixed due to raw availability of parts from the manufacturer--and the parts they CAN get are overpriced.

Post-purchase support is incredibly important to an airline--if they buy a plane, they tend to operate it for 20 to 30 years--unlike people who buy a new car the moment the old one's paid for. And they expect the plane to still be 99% reliable 25 years after purchase, with no loss of performance.

Engine support-wise, PW is the best, followed by GE, then RR. RR costs more, harder to fix, and generally can only be fixed in the few "official" RR repair shops--but they are more reliable to start with.

Interesting tidbit about Boeing, I didn't know it. But then again, I don't think that's quite enough because up until the introduction of the 787 and the Airbus setback, Boeing was getting its ass kicked the last few years. The Airbus crappy service didn't hurt that much then.

[David Hingtgen]

Ok, more info, and specifically about the A380 wiring:

First, Airbus' CEO's have resigned.

Second, Rolls-Royce has suspended engine production for the A380. No new aircraft are being built, so no engines needed. Ironically the 747 had the opposite problem---not enough engines early in the program, with dozen of finished planes sitting around the factory, engineless.

Some quotes:

"Looming trouble

The immediate cause of the disaster was a breakdown in the snap-together final assembly process in Toulouse that has served the company well for over 30 years. Rear fuselages made in Hamburg were supposed to arrive in Toulouse with all their wiring ready to plug into the forward parts coming in from factories in north and west France. But the 500km of wiring in the two halves did not match up, causing huge problems. Failure to use the latest three-dimensional modelling software meant nobody anticipated the effect of using lightweight aluminium wiring rather than copper, which is to make bends in the wiring looms bulkier. Worse, the engineers scrambling to fix the problem did so in different ways. So the early aircraft all have their own one-of-a-kind wiring systems. It will take all of next year to introduce a proper standardised process.

None of this would have mattered so much if the airliner's fuselage had all been built in France. But Germany lobbied hard to land a big chunk of the A380, to add to the final assembly of some derivatives of the A320 family. Now the greater complexity of the super-jumbo has shown up the inherent weaknesses in Airbus's production system, just as it faces a revitalised Boeing and a weaker dollar. Most of Airbus's costs are in euros, but sales are in dollars. So Airbus's new boss, Christian Streiff, must slash costs."

"It sounds too simple to be true. Airbus' A380 megajet is now a full two years behind schedule—and the reason, CEO Christian Streiff admitted on Oct. 3, is that design software used at different Airbus factories wasn't compatible.

Early this year, when pre-assembled bundles containing hundreds of miles of cabin wiring were delivered from a German factory to the assembly line in France, workers discovered that the bundles, called harnesses, didn't fit properly into the plane. Assembly slowed to a near-standstill, as workers tried to pull the bundles apart and re-thread them through the fuselage. Now Airbus will have to go back to the drawing board and redesign the wiring system.

It's shaping up to be one of the costliest blunders in the history of commercial aerospace. Airbus' parent, European Aeronautic Defence & Space, expects to take a $6.1 billion profit hit over the next four years. Airlines that have ordered the A380 are fuming, and though none so far has canceled an order, Airbus will have to pay millions in late-delivery penalties."

There's a lot more about the software, basically some are using CATIA from the 80's, some are using proprietary stuff from Massachusetts, etc.

Dear Airbus: good luck rewiring by hand entire A380's. I bet the unemplyoment rate for electricians (or anyone who can solder) is about 0% in France now.

[kalvasflam]

First, Airbus' CEO's have resigned.

Second, Rolls-Royce has suspended engine production for the A380. No new aircraft are being built, so no engines needed. Ironically the 747 had the opposite problem---not enough engines early in the program, with dozen of finished planes sitting around the factory, engineless.

Dear Airbus: good luck rewiring by hand entire A380's. I bet the unemplyoment rate for electricians (or anyone who can solder) is about 0% in France now.

Steriff resigned??? huh?

On the other hand, the Rolls news is just pure irony for all involved. And it's funny as hell....

The last statement is just hilarious, I guess that'll surely make Tolouse an expensive place to live in soon. I find the whole thing with respect to the European union and the idea of equality just funny, let everybody share in the work, and hope to hell they get it right. But I'm betting there is stll not one single cancellation at the end of this fiasco. Why... there is not another real competitor. EADS is lucky in that respect.

[Lightning]

-snip-

Dear Airbus: good luck rewiring by hand entire A380's. I bet the unemplyoment rate for electricians (or anyone who can solder) is about 0% in France now.

I'll be damned, maybe I can land a really high-paying job just 'cause I can solder wires...

[drifand]

Singapore Airlines has been running a prominent advertising campaign from about Q2 2006 boasting 'FIRST TO FLY A380'... bet the compensation has to cover some of the costs already plumbed into the ads!

[David Hingtgen]

Airlines nowadays tend to get anything they want as compensation, all agreed to long before the prototype flies. I'd guess it came about from the MD-11's shortcomings.

I know United had it set up to be paid thousands of dollars (possibly tens of thousands), per pound, per plane, for every bit the 777 was overweight from design spec. (It ended up like 8 pounds under---which is amazingly "on the money" a basic 500,000lb plane)

[Lynx7725]

Hey, DH. Anything new on the Gol 1907 case? I went to Air Disasters but that 40+ page thread (last I checked) was degrading into a physics discussion. Which was nice, but not necessarily any new developments on the case.

[Sumdumgai]

I'll be damned, maybe I can land a really high-paying job just 'cause I can solder wires...

If Toulousians are anything like Parisians, I would hope you have really thick skin, and not mind the anarchism. On the bright side, you'd probably be able to go on strike at the drop of a hat.

[David Hingtgen]

Nothing really on Gol. I've waded through EVERY page (and there's less actual info each page) and nothing really to report. Certainly the most intriguing crash in years. It's rare to go this long without knowing what actually happened. (WHY can take years, but WHAT is usually known pretty quickly)

[Lynx7725]

Nothing really on Gol. I've waded through EVERY page (and there's less actual info each page) and nothing really to report. Certainly the most intriguing crash in years. It's rare to go this long without knowing what actually happened. (WHY can take years, but WHAT is usually known pretty quickly)

Not to bash the Brazilian government, but their track record with transparency isn't that good. Lots of allegation in the particular thread I think you waded through. Interesting stuff in there, but too much of a chaff:wheat ratio.

It's not even sure that the ERJ collided into the 737, though it seems very likely. And we now have conflicting reports that the 737 didn't nosedive but was spread over what, 20KM? That's quite a departure from initial reports.

[Apollo Leader]

This has been going on too long, but I've got to say it,

Commercial aircraft/airliners = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.............

But I guess when in Rome, do as the Romans do, so whenever I get the pictures I took at the air show at Lincoln a few weeks ago I did get some pictures of commercial airliners landing on the adjacent runway.

[kalvasflam]

This has been going on too long, but I've got to say it,

Commercial aircraft/airliners = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.............

But I guess when in Rome, do as the Romans do, so whenever I get the pictures I took at the air show at Lincoln a few weeks ago I did get some pictures of commercial airliners landing on the adjacent runway.

A little variety is good for life. After all, combat aircraft might be sexy and hot, but it's the commercial airlines that gets business done all day.

Although I am the first to admit, just looking at the pictures of the 787 from a distance, it looks exactly like a 737.... BORING

[Nied]

This has been going on too long, but I've got to say it,

Commercial aircraft/airliners = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.............

But I guess when in Rome, do as the Romans do, so whenever I get the pictures I took at the air show at Lincoln a few weeks ago I did get some pictures of commercial airliners landing on the adjacent runway.

Seriously. I once asked my father why he didn't become an airline pilot after leaving the Navy (he flew F9F-8 Panthers), he told me: "that's like asking a former race car driver why he didn't drive a bus after retiring."

In other news I finally got to see an F-22 in flight (2 actually) over the weekend at the fleetweek airshow. They were only up for about ten minutes of zoom climbs but damn was that impressive! Nice cap to getting married and spending a week and half in Hawaii.

Edited October 10, 2006 by Nied

[Graham]

Interesting Typhoon tid-bit from the Eurofighter forums - apparently the Typhoon will be getting the 27mm cannon, plus relevant training, in RAF service. This is apparently due to current operational experience involving Harriers which is causing air/ground force co-operation problems.

Go ahead, punks. Make our day.

The RAF Typhoons have always had the 27mm cannon. AFAIK, it was never removed, they just didn't train on it and had no ammo.

But it's great if it is being cleared for operational use. How many times do those in charge need to re-learn that fighters need guns and missiles, not only missiles.

Graham

[Retracting Head Ter Ter]

In other news I finally got to see an F-22 in flight (2 actually) over the weekend at the fleetweek airshow. They were only up for about ten minutes of zoom climbs but damn was that impressive! Nice cap to getting married and spending a week and half in Hawaii.

Are they any quieter in flight or do they make a racket like the F-16?

[David Hingtgen]

Since *I* like commercial airliners more than anything else, it will always be on topic here. About 80% of my model planes are airliners.

I've read the F-22 makes a distinct sound, but have yet to hear it myself. And for jets, it's all about the engines, obviously. F-16C Block 30 and Block 32/42 sound VERY different. And Block 52/re-engined 42's are probably the loudest and most "ripping", vs the "roar" of Block 30/40/50.

Super Tomcats, having re-tuned versions of the F-16C Block 30/40/50 engine, are surprisingly quiet, despite having two of them.

Late model F-15E's are said to be about the loudest jets there are nowadays, having 2 of the Block 52 engines. (There's now so many F-16 engines, you'll find them in about every other plane too) I've only ever heard F-15C's.

Oh, and Super Hornets are incredibly noisy and "ripping", right up there with an F-16 Block 52. Complete opposite of the Legacy Hornet. And that just makes the Super Hornet "whisper" pass even more amazing. Super Hornets have more of a "rip" than any jet I've ever heard.

If you want a buzz, listen to a Rolls-Royce.

[UN Spacy]

Any other Bay Area MW'ers attend the Fleet Week festivities?

[F-ZeroOne]

The RAF Typhoons have always had the 27mm cannon. AFAIK, it was never removed, they just didn't train on it and had no ammo.

But it's great if it is being cleared for operational use. How many times do those in charge need to re-learn that fighters need guns and missiles, not only missiles.

Graham

Thanks for the correction. All we need now is for some Typhoon brylcreem boy to break the ROE on the next training exercise and get himself a photo of a gun kill on a F-22... [1]

[1] Yes, I know that the infamous "F-18" shot wasn't the full story, and was also really, really silly on the part of the Navy pilot.

[Apollo Leader]

Oh, and Super Hornets are incredibly noisy and "ripping", right up there with an F-16 Block 52. Complete opposite of the Legacy Hornet. And that just makes the Super Hornet "whisper" pass even more amazing. Super Hornets have more of a "rip" than any jet I've ever heard.

I've noticed that "ripping" sound when it comes to like the F-14A+/B/D (RIP) and their F110 engines along with a few other aircraft.

[the white drew carey]

Yeah? Have you tried those long ass international flights of 10 or more hours? Besides, too many people would revolt if there was no tv, it's like a damn entitlement for the cattle class. Imagine what would happen to all the JetBlue customers if they decided no more DirecTV.

Actually, yes, I have. Many times.

I could give a damn what year old movie is playing. If I wanted to see it, I already would have.

That's why I said I'd rather prefer a couple more inches of space and leg-room, give my current read, and I'm happy.

[Nied]

How a jet engine sounds is very dependant on the local weather conditions as well. My dad went to college in Vermont and said that the sound of VTANG F-106s taking off was completely different depending on the temperature, in hot and muggy September they'd sound full and deep, but in th edead of winter he said they sounded almost like sheet metal tearing. I didn't have much in the way of afterburnig fighter jets to compare them to this year but in somwhat moist 60 degree air an F-22 sounds very similar to a B-1 only somwhat quieter and much deeper, it had a real throaty quality to it that I really liked.

[Skull Leader]

This has been going on too long, but I've got to say it,

Commercial aircraft/airliners = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.............

But I guess when in Rome, do as the Romans do, so whenever I get the pictures I took at the air show at Lincoln a few weeks ago I did get some pictures of commercial airliners landing on the adjacent runway.

I agree with the cornhusker... I understand a few of you are real afficionados when it comes to Boeing 7-whatevers, Airbus, etc... can we get back to fast-movers though?

And Richard, it's "When in Rome, do as many Romans as possible"

[David Hingtgen]

World's best super-cruiser is still the Concorde, so a big goes out to all the F-22 fans...