Collector's Market Crash... Is A New One Coming?

[Penguin]

Ok, maybe this is the wrong topic to throw this under, but since it's not Macross-specific I tossed it here.

stram8777 and I were briefly PMing about the comics crash of the 90s and whether it (or something similar) is comin' 'round again.

I definitely don't see things as bad today as they were in the 90s. Back then, the surge in collecting was largely due to an influx of investor-only purchasing, driven by the stories coming out in the media about olds toys and comics being sold for megabucks (thanks in no small part to the rise of eBay and it's ilk). But I don't know whether this is likely to happen again in the same way.

Back in the 90s, those huge sales were mostly by former children of the 70s and 80s, now grown up with disposable income and finding some value in nostalgia. Star Wars had given birth to a new merchandising paradigm that had action figures and comics out for just about everything around then (I've even got a Marvel Super Special for the Olivia Newton-John/Gene Kelly musical "Xanadu"). All that stuff was treated pretty ruggedly by the kids (my own Star Wars figures are in pretty rough condition from years of play), so mint examples were rare. Same thing with the classic comics. Thus, high prices ensued.

In come the collectors, seeing only "35-cent / 2-dollar investment in 1970 turns into $1000 20 years later", and they began to snap stuff up. But the toy and comic companies increased production to meet the demand. With everyone buying these things and sealing them in mylar, there was no scarcity. When the first investors tried to liquidate some of their collections in the late 90s, they found they had all dropped in value, in some cases steeply. And, the bottom dropped out. Marvel had to file for Chapter 11 and was bailed out by Toy Biz. With Time/Warner backing them, DC was cushioned but still hurt.

These days, I don't see my local comic store flooded like it was back then. Plus, the toy and comic companies started servicing the collectors more directly through artificial scarcity. The short-packed or store exclusive toy, convention exclusives, rare alternate covers... all these exist to try to prevent another crash.

So, is it working?

[Southpaw Samurai]

Personally, for a long time I've been warning 'collectors' (those who are really more of 'speculators' since they're keeping things mint in hopes of one day selling them off for big bucks, that is) that it's a very risky game and the big boom of the late 80's, early 90's will fade, if not crash on many of the items people are going crazy over.

If you're speculating on items that appealed to you as a kid (particularly the new stuff meant to sell with those who have feelings of nostalgia), unless the nostalgia-induced resurgence causes another wave of kids to get hooked, you're probably going to face flat or even dropping prices after the initial hype dies down.

Look at electric trains. Big with kids of the late 40's and 50's, they had a nice boom period in the 60's-70's where people could sell their old trains for outrageous prices. Then the kids who became grownups started getting families and ran out of room and couldn't keep their stuff. And their kids weren't interested in trains, so the market went downhill. Today the industry is a much small niche industry, so prices have risen a bit, but in many cases people are only interested in your old trains if there's something particularly unique about them.

Look at Mego figures. Big with kids of the 70's, they saw a BIG resurgence in the 90's. Even superfigures with holes in their cloth uniforms would sell for more than they were worth new in the day. However, soon people grew out of that and kids these days really don't want your pretty crappy looking Megos when they can have Marvel Legends and DC Direct figures.

Macross/Transformers/G.I.Joe/Star Wars... they're all 80's toys. Most likely the same will happen. And for the next ten to fifteen years you'll watch your closet full of precious, boxed, never played with or loved toys stabilize in prices and/or decline. If you're lucky, 2020 will see such a nostalgia for our time period that it'll include the re-resurgence of some of the things people found nostalgic about the 80's-90's. Probably not. In the end, your toys will see some increase as the items become rarer, but eventually so will those people who would want said collectibles. In the end, you'll be looking at a market of historians or people fascinated by some aspect of late 20th/early 21st century culture as your only customers.

What makes matters worse is that EVERYONE is collecting and saving things as close to MIMB as possible. The reason a Mego or Star Wars figure sold for crazy prices? Because it was maybe one out of twenty that was not played with and kept nice. Now it's one out of twenty that gets taken out of the box. In the short run, hype or pure scalping will turn profits, but down the road if no one plays with their stuff, MIMB becomes the near common grade, instead of the unique. And now we have companies that specifically grade and seal comics and toys away...

If you're 'collecting' stuff in order to sell them down the road for 200% or more of their value, you'd probably have better luck guessing what items of TODAY's generation of kids are probably going to want to go back and buy out of nostalgia once they start having disposable income. You want the things that people today are opening and using and otherwise ruining the condition of. Then you'll be one of the few with a nice, shiny one come twenty years from now.

Before any of you get angry at me, I'll throw in that I do my part to benefit the rest of you by opening and playing with any toys I do decide to pick up.

Anyway, all my opinion, of course.

[Mowe]

I don't mind a crash at all. I collect Valks because I like to collect them. I personally think they are way over priced anyway. Speculators bug me as they play a major role in jacking up Valk prices. Let's have a crash and let the Valks flow back to their rightful owners, cheaply.

[JsARCLIGHT]

(I've even got a Marvel Super Special for the Olivia Newton-John/Gene Kelly musical "Xanadu")

Holeee freaking hell... I LOVE that cheezy ass movie!

As for the collector's market crashing, it's going to happen. Maybee not today or tomorrow but it will happen. Everything goes through cycles and will eventually fall out of fashion and become near worthless only to be brought back to life a decade later and cherished by another generation. Having lived through the disco era, the urban cowboy era, the new wave era and the grunge era I can't say I'm sad to see them go... but they will be back and once again those Member's Only jackets, Lee Husky Jeans, Cowboy hats with bird feathers and bell bottoms will all eventually be back in style. The same goes for collectables and other things.

I could be wrong but hasn't the market for Star Wars toys sort of tanked already? I believe the market for 12" army dolls has also tanked or at least is in the process of tanking... everything comes and goes.

[Cyclone]

I won't mind a crash as long as companies producing modern collector items don't go under. Secondary market prices can go to hell for all I care as long as companies still keep producing the products I like.

But I think artifical rareness has changed the way the market works, and generally not for the better. It has widened the field so we are getting more than main characters.

Edited March 11, 2006 by Cyclone

[baronv]

I agree, all this collecting with mint in box, uncreased, C-9, F-14 or whatever grading things are. They are toys, and in the long run there are so many collectors out there now these won't go sky high as everyone expects. This topic was brought up before and some MW memebers were saying that these toys were better investments than sotcks and real estate which I find preposterous in the long run. Stocks and real estate everyone needs, toys...not so much.

[1/1 LowViz Lurker]

I don't mind a crash at all. I collect Valks because I like to collect them. I personally think they are way over priced anyway. Speculators bug me as they play a major role in jacking up Valk prices. Let's have a crash and let the Valks flow back to their rightful owners, cheaply.

I agree so much with this. Argh! If only we could avoid importing these things and wasting so much money.

In the long run it is fans of that specific series that are the collectors not people who are out to make massive bucks when they can do other things. Even if yamato for example were to boost the price of a new toy I know for sure fans on this board wouldn't complain because they are desperate and have the money to burn and it might be of a mecha design they are fond of and can't get anywhere. Look at the alphas for example. If people want something badly enough they will find a way to scrap together the cash to get it knowing they are getting ripped off.

But to those without so much money 1 or 2 is enough, and we hope that casual fans might be able to afford one too to share this with others and get them into it. At least with star wars, they were within reasonable price to begin with so a collection was possible. But I realise macross is dying, and should have really died a long time ago and people moved on. So I am grateful that there is a new stuff coming out. Since there is not much interest or competition and the masses probably don't know or care what the old series was about it is expected the fans are the ones keeping the memory alive. Once the fanbase is gone however, (people age and move to other things) I think there won't be the MIB hoarder/collectors to sell to these desperate people.

I think maybe one of the reasons the comic industry might have died was because marvel didn't care about quality and took less of a fan aporoach and pissed fans off so they left.

I liken this to the videogame crash when ET game came out and the only people into the industry were investors who cared nothing about the quality of the actual game itself, (only the $$$$) so people thought gaming was just a fad and left the hobby because the games started to really suck and not be worth the money people paid for them. And then nintendo came in and dominated the home console market in the 80s (releasing triple AAA titles) to where they are today. (not really dominating anymore but enjoying great success with fan loyalty who can tell the difference between a poo game and good one due to years of fanaticism and keeping the hobby alive)

I do not think there will be another game crash now because the mistakes of the past have now been fixed and people are more smart and aware than when they were back in the days of pac man where thier attitude was gaming = a fad or passing trend. I would laugh at people with that kind of attitude today. Although I do worry that biggest companies will merge together to survive and to compete which might mean the largest left standing has a monopoly in future. (which affects choices in future)

Now the same thing is with toys when a better version of something comes out (for example the yamato and toynami vf1) the older ones (chunky munky) usually drop in value if the newer one supercedes the older in quality unless the older one has 'historical value'. (just for being ooooold and a part of that era where it all began) It's only biased fans of the old version that attribute value to it and this is where ebay comes in for those who own the old stuff to rip off the fan by charging whatever the fan will pay. The highest bidder is like a guy who sees value in something that others do not see. (like some guy who looks at a crap painting but loves the artist or something and has lots of money to waste)

But lets go back to my golden rule: so long as the fans are still there in years to come (and it looks like it is slowly dying) there will be people to sell the stuff to. And this is where I say: I wish a new generation was into it as much as the older generation because right now people are going to spend it on other things if they have multiple interests. And part of the reason stopping new fans getting into it(the expansion of the fanbase), is that legal mess which blocks the stuff from exposure in other markets which boosts the price out of the price range of the ordinary person. Only the hardcore (but small and dying) hardest core fans will eat it up.

Edited March 11, 2006 by 1/1 LowViz Lurker

[sidearmsalpha]

But lets go back to my golden rule: so long as the fans are still there in years to come (and it looks like it is slowly dying) there will be people to sell the stuff to. And this is where I say: I wish a new generation was into it as much as the older generation because right now people are going to spend it on other things if they have multiple interests. And part of the reason stopping new fans getting into it(the expansion of the fanbase), is that legal mess which blocks the stuff from exposure in other markets which boosts the price out of the price range of the ordinary person. Only the hardcore (but small and dying) hardest core fans will eat it up.

379161[/snapback]

Speaking of which, is there any news on whether or not anyone is working on a new Macross anime? I take it Macross Zero wasn't very successful in Japan considering there really wasn't a whole lot of merchandise for it. I would think if a re-imagining of the Macross series/movie would bring in a bunch of new fans in Japan and abroad? I'd really like to see the original series or movie with brand new animation or done entirely in CG. The stories could be rewritten to make them longer or new plot twists could be added, and the characters could be slightly updated.

The original series and movie are, IMHO, the best anime released to this day. The mecha designs are still mind-blowing! Kawamori and the other mecha designers were ahead of their time. It's such a great feeling as a fan to look at their stuff now and feel like they came up with this stuff today! I mean you can't say the same for alot of the other robots that came out around that time. I would think that a remake would definitely bring in today's generation of teens and young adults who haven't been exposed to Macross.

My nephew of 10 years old always likes to come over to see what new Macross toys I have. I still remember being his age when Robotech came out, which exposed me to Macross, and I've been a longtime fan ever since with my Macross toy collection being my favorite out of all the toys/figures I collect. I can see older kids and teens getting excited about the stories and sci fi elements like we all were if the series was widely presented again with a new face that would appeal to new as well as old fans.

I guess it's wishful thinking. I hope the new Robotech Shadow Chronicles anime is good enough to attract new fans to Robotech which could possibly generate interest in new Macross projects.

What I don't get is how Bandai can continue to churn out lackluster Gundam anime after lackluster Gundam anime, and Gundam fandom doesn't seem to be on the decline (well, in Japan, where it counts). I'm sure they already have something in the works after Gundam Seed has been exhausted. I like robots in anime, but no Gundam series has ever grabbed my attention like the original Macross series has. Yeah, the Gundam designs in each series are cool, for the most part, but there's really nothing that screams awesome since Gundam Sentinel, and that was over a decade ago and not even an anime, for that matter. Yet, somehow, Gundam is still more popular than Macross. Gundam shows must be using some kind of subliminal hypnosis on Japanese kids!

Edited March 11, 2006 by sidearmsalpha

[1/1 LowViz Lurker]

The stories could be rewritten to make them longer or new plot twists could be added, and the characters could be slightly updated.

And to not offend old school fans they can retain some of the old style of the original. (note the change in roy's appearance in macross Zero? Wasn't a fan of that) Like what happened with the updated astroboy. (kept the design just like the old version)

Retain what worked well in the original but also get rid of what didn't, and improve upon that. Despite what fans say, it was not perfect. Tell us more about the mysterious supervision army FFS. Maybe as a filler, put in some flashback episode of global and admiral hayes in earlier days and reveal something new about the anti-un. There are all kinds of extra things they could put in to make it 50 eps like macross 7.

I guess what I want is DYRL level of quality but for a tv series.

Edited March 19, 2006 by 1/1 LowViz Lurker

[Penguin]

Holeee freaking hell... I LOVE that cheezy ass movie!

379135[/snapback]

Guiltiest... pleasure... ever...

What I don't get is how Bandai can continue to churn out lackluster Gundam anime after lackluster Gundam anime, and Gundam fandom doesn't seem to be on the decline (well, in Japan, where it counts).

379289[/snapback]

I often wonder about that too. Even Star Trek fandom in North America isn't rabid enough to put up with lackluster quality forever.

When I look at the toy collectors, at least those I know, they are getting fed up with exclusives and short-packs. People just want to collect the cool stuff they like, and resent having to jump through hoops and pay inflated prices to get them. When the crash comes, I think it'll stem from those artificial scarcity scams. I know that I've already reached the point where I can't be bothered to pay the jacked-up prices people expect for them on eBay. My local comic/toy store is pretty good about not upping prices on random and short packs unreasonably, although they do a little, but they seem to be the exception.

[myk]

Yeah. Go ahead and crash. I could use another 'Low Vis....

[Smiley424]

Frankly I hope the toy collecting market does crash so I can find toys in stores instead of having to go online or Ebay to buy my action figures. I hate how as soon as new Star Wars or Marvel Legends figures hit the shelves, they're gone in a week or less. Just because I want Republic Commando Scorch action figure doesn't mean I want to pay 2 or 3 times the store price for it.

[Macross73]

I really hate the short packed stuff. I'm not talking about the variants. i'm talking about the fact only one of a particular figure is in a box of 12. that bothers me.

So in that respect I really hate it, yeah let it crash.

Edited March 15, 2006 by Macross73

[Roy Focker]

So if crashes what happens?

A few over priced comic book or Online stores close?

Toy Scalpers leave at least one action figure on the shelf?

I can buy more for my dollar on ebay?

[Mowe]

That's what I've been dreaming.

So if crashes what happens?

I can buy more for my dollar on ebay?

380388[/snapback]

[1st Border Red Devil]

Well,

I don't collect toys, but I do collect old D&D modules and boardgames like HeroQuest and Talisman. None of what I like would really be affected by a crash because my stuff is already a niche purchase, though HeroQuest was one of the most produced games ever, thanks to MiltonBradley. You can still find the game and expansions from time to time at thrift stores.

D&D modules, on the other hand, since they are rarer to begin with, I'm totally at the mercy of the what the market charges.