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Bri

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Everything posted by Bri

  1. Yes, the SU27 and Mig 29 are also air superiority fighters. However the article puts a lightweight fighter like the MIG 29 over the F15 which seems silly to me. A heavy fighter like the F15 can support a heavier radar and carries more fuel so it would have serious advantage in BVR. Assuming the electronics of the Migs and Sukhois would be on par (which is doubtful). Also the chance of an F15 engaging a Mig29 or Sukhoi without AWACS, Rivet Joint, Compass Call, tankers etc seems unlikely. Making the less then 1:1 ratio unlikely. If the article refers to dog fight skills then it makes no sense. No way a F22 would be able to go 30:1 against Mig29s in dogfights. To much relies on pilot skills and its mainly intended for BVR.
  2. That article seems a tad irrealistic. I mean F15s as a pure air superiority fighter having a loss ratio to Su27/Mig29s of more then 1:1? Doubtful statement at best. Anyones guess what will happen but with the JSF being a wildcard I doubt they will cancel the F22 rightaway. The airforce could opt for some latest versions of the F15/F16s as a stopgap measure and a minimum number of F22s to keep the production line open to buy time (and money).
  3. Thank you for the discussion. This part I can fully agree with -off course-. Anime and hobbies in general are part of the nicer things in life. Unnecessary maybe from a rational perspective but definitly food for the soul.
  4. Economics is like meteorology in that respect. Meteorologists can predict the weather a few days in advance, but they can't tell you if it will rain on 12 october 2013 in Amsterdam, New York or Tokyo. There are to many unknown variables involved that will affect the model. It's not uncommon for mathmaticians and physicists who work on meteological models to work on economic models aswell.
  5. I'm sorry but we are talking about two different things here. First: the world economy was not overheating in 2008. Inflation was not out of control nor were unemployement levels below the NAIRU, which are the signs of economic overheating. Yes, there was a bubble in the late 90s but it slowly collapsed in the early 2000s and therewas a relativly mild recession. I can't give you the specifics of the US economy but Europe is already in the second cycle past that one. Keynesian theory has been dead for over 2 decades: it suggests that there is a trade-off between inflation and employment that can be used to smooth out the bussiness cycle. This is proven to be false. The Monetarists proved that money has no inherent value ("money is a veil") and the trade-off does not exist. The Monetarist versus neo-Kenesian debate was finished in favour of the Monetarists. The irony of the current crisis is that the rules the monetairists propossed to protect us from systemic risk failed. Mainly due to exessive risk taking by financial institutions. Reasons for that are legion: Return demands by investors, tax systems that make debt preferable over equitity, managers ignoring safety regulations etc. There is only the now. So the short term and long term are now aswell. It is just a way to look at problems from different perspectives. The only source of economic growth is the human mind: technology and innovation are the true engines. Captial and labour are in limited supply, human imagination is unlimited. For more information check out growth models by Solow. It the basis for most modern economic thinking. Note: the USA is the exception in the world in the area that it does not need to save and can rely almost completly on external savings. The reason is that the US economy is the most competative in the world and still gives the highest return on investment and the dollar is accepted as a reserve currency. Don't really want to get into the details as it gets quite far off topic but for more information check on Krugmans works. Agreed, and to quote Keynes: "in the long term we are all dead". Same goes for his theory. This statement doesn't make sense. Projects undertaken with a negative Net Present Value will just destroy value and not be in anyones gain. Krugman is a big name in the exchange rate field, sounds strange he would state such a thing in this context. I'm sorry but this is incorrect. Financial institutions create money, not (just) the central bank. The central bank sets the interest rates for which banks can borrow from the central bank. Banks themselves can loan and borrow funds on the interbank market. Money creation happens because banks to not have to keep a 1:1 ratio of deposits versus loans but a 1:12 (roughly) one. The law of large numbers and the interbank market make it that banks don't fail when there is a so-called bank run. What happened in the last decade is that mortgages (and other financial derivatives) were taken of the bank balance and put in special companies that trade on the financial markets but are not banks. These companies were not bound by the 1:12 rule and this is where the problem lies. When they started to collect bad debt they dragged their investors (mainly banks, insurance, pension funds etc) down with them. (International) Government regulations could not keep up with reality. The gold standard would only remove exchange rates. Money is neutral remember. The Monetarists fought heavily for an independant Central Bank. Who is acting Keynesian now Most Central Banks are under democratic control. The FED is accountable to congress but not to the administration. Stimulus packages are there to easy the pain of the worst fall out. It's social policy to prevent public unrest. No sane economist will state that Keynesian stimuli should be used to kick start the economy. It's only to ease the pain and give people time to get back on their feet. To use your analogy: You'd still want to go out on a date with a cute girl, but if there were few girls around and the government would give you a ticket for a beach holiday in Florida during spring break qith a few dozen college girls...well I seem to be thinking off rabbits now Afaik the word theory has can be used for one or multiple. This crisis is not a mystery of any sort and can be easily explained even by text book knowledge. It's very similar to what happened to Japan in the 80s hence the fear for debt-deflation spirals who are far worse then adding some demand stimuli. Keynes vs Monetarists is no longer relevant. Current research focusses on behavioural theory and growth theory. The former is based on the works of Nash and the overlap of economics and psychology. The latter on Solow growth models.
  6. Jenius explained things very well. Not much to add there. As for the comments. Well people get worked up about things that affect their lives but can't control. It's human and if venting about it makes them feel better go ahead. Keeping the tone civilised is apreciated however. For VTF-1 (and those with an interest in the background of the crisis): You are right that savings( aka investments) are the key to capital accumulation and economic growth in the long term. The world economy was not overheating however. The current recession is caused by liquidity problems and falling demand due to lower consumer confidance, which is another thing entirely. The problem in laymans terms: Firms(even healthy ones) get in to trouble as they can't get credit to deal with uneven cash flows (stock versus sales etc). Result: firms try to save money by shedding staff and minimise current expenses. Not only people who get layed off but everyone who fears for their job reduces expenditure and will not buy anything expensive (cars, houses, consumer electronics vacations etc). So both firms and people lower consumption. Result less demand for goods and services and we get a negative spiral. Banks loan savings from people to firms and pay interest over these deposits. We call this the financial transformation function (this is the reason why savings equal investment and is essential for any type of economy to grow, free market or not). The systemic collaps of the financial sector has caused this function to halt and this is what is hurting employment and families. If we can get banks to start lending again (altough more carefull to whom) we can at least solve the liquidity problem. For this peoples cash is needed in the banks. This is not done out of a sense of duty or patriotism but personal gain for the saver (cash versus interest on depositos). Thats why low interest rates are so nasty atm as people don't feel any disadvantage of holding cash. This is similar to what happened to Japan in the late 80s. The other part of the problem is the low consumer confidance. Fear for unemployment make it that people don't dare to spend. This is the psychological factor and the hardest to fight. Governments have put together those stimulus packages to ease the pain of falling demand and hopefully people will have a more optimistic outlook on their prospects in the near future. It's a misconception to think that economic theory was proven wrong in this crisis. It works fine to explain what happened and what the effects will be. Compare it to an engineer in the car industry. He can predict what the results/damage will be when a person crashes a car at 100 mph. It's just that he can't predict when a driver will park his car against a wall in real life.
  7. Bri

    Yamato $2000 DYRL MACROSS

    Don't think 50k yen is that bad of a price for an item that will be the center piece of most Macross collections. As previous posters said, the exchange rate will make it a bargain or not. Yes, its a load of money to spend on a toy but everything is relative. I know comic collectors who will spend double or more without blinking on commision pieces. And don't get me started on other hobbies like boats or classic cars.
  8. I'm an economist and work as a research assistant at a Dutch University. The crisis doesn't really affect me or my collection much. Few years ago I decided not to buy a house but to rent a place and save the difference in a savings account. Dutch house prices have been obscene for the last decade or so and I did not want to leverage myself for house that in my opinion was highly overvalued (house prices over here and are two to five times the replacment value, mainly due to high land prices). In hindsight I am glad I did, as house prices are slowly but steadily dropping, evaporating the underlying asset value of the mortages. I hope economic recovery will be fast but this is not a normal bust after a boom period. It's a collapse of the financial system due to contagion by bad sectors who had been taking excessive risk. If the banking sectors recover fast enough we may see the end of the crisis soon. However at the moment the low interest rates have me worried. The interbank-market is pretty much dead and cash is turning into a perfect sustitute for bank deposits, adding to the credit cruch. Hopefully the stimulus package and devaluation of the dollar will increase inflation and exports both of which will increase private spending. Like religion an economy runs on faith, only difference is that you want people to spend instead of pray.
  9. Checked out the discription on ANN. Certainly looks interesting. For that matter seems Bones has done a few more anime that seem worth watching. Haven't seen Rahxephon and FMA yet either. Never realised these were all from the same studios. Last week I was running out of things to watch, but now...heh
  10. Alternate ending? nice, I'll be sure to check the local store for the manga. Thanks for the tip.
  11. Can't go wrong with that, some of the best character driven sci-fi out there imo Overman King Gainer certainly looks interesting, might try that one
  12. Didn't know that an anime was made of Tale of Genji , interesting, will have to check it out. As for anime: just completed a marathon watch of Eureka 7. Received the last DVD last week and got round to watch it all. Mecha anime at it's finest. Wonderful character driven story. Lovable cast, great music and nice off-beat mecha designs by the master SK himself. Somehow it a bit felt like SDFM and Crest of Stars to me and thats about as high a praise I can give.
  13. Glad it worked out alright now. While there is always a risk scans can end up on public spaces I'm very happy some MW members like Gubaba actually take the effort to make translations. With the way things are with HG its not that likely that we will see any official translations any time soon. I am starting to understand the spoken language slowly but reading it is a whole other ballgame. Waiting for translations is no problem at all. Certainly when to protect the publishers in fact its the sensible thing to do as a fan, wish more people actually cared that much. Much like MW its self, it never ceases to amaze me how much effort people behind are prepared to put in to share the hobby with other enthausiasts. Abusing trust can so easily lead to people getting cynical and stop contributing. For what its worth thanks for those who make this all work.
  14. Don't think there was much of an adult audience in the years Macross, Yamato and Mobile Suit Gundam originally aired. As far as I know adults watching anime has only recently become accepted in Japan. Manga was ok but it was uncommon for anyone past their twenties to watch anime. The whole late night/OVA market puzzles me aswell. Seems 00.00 to 02.00am is prime time for anime in Japan. Wonder if people just tape it during weekdays or if the fanbase is more diehard.
  15. Bri

    Macross AMV

    Great piece of Fan work, keep it up!
  16. Leona Ozaki's "Bonaparte" from Dominion Tank Police. How I would love to tear trough the morning traffic jams with that little monster.
  17. The almost surreal comedy around the announcement of Newtype about the second season of Haruhi Suzumiya has left the fans in utter confusion. The website that announced it was a rerun has retracted its statement and turned it into something vague like the Newtype article. Latest developments on Canned Dogs They should call it the "Mystery of Haruhi Suzumiya". Glad SK doesn't troll the Macross fans as hard as Kadokawa seems to do. During this real life comedy I managed to watch some more anime: Lucky star: I enjoyed it. Hilarious at times and some of the sharpest social observations I have seen in anime. Samurai X Trust and Betrayal: Nicely animated OAV, very strong atmosphere, but I fell I missed some references. Not having seen the TV series probably didn't help.
  18. Ok, think night on the town and who is the ideal wingman...hmm: Hikaru: Would take him to long to spot the right girl, so that's a no Focker: He'd take both girls for a ride, no again Alto: To many guys hitting on him to do his job: nope Max: Hmm, only does his job if the friends a green-haired gamer: no Gamlin: err... that would be evil: pass Luca: Doubt he makes it past the door with his fake ID: nope Guld Bowman: Usefull but he would take his job to seriously, poor girl: too risky Lolicon3: hmm, not much chance running in to bridge bunnies I guess: nope Kakizaki: He will take anything of your hands: Perfect! We have a winner
  19. Mylene for sure. Love her distinct voice. Carefull there Pete a Coworker of mine got in trouble recently because she suggested a very light skinned collegue to do some tanning to look more attractive. The other girl got upset and filed a complaint. The coworker got sacked for discrimanatory remarks.
  20. True, it's a shame the ADV dub, while having superior dialogue, has such horrible voice acting. Even Mari Ijima can't save the collective failure ofthe other VA's. Potential Robotech converts might end up going back if they listen to the dub instead of the sub (another reason for subs over dubs).
  21. I t would seem that the city designers in DYRL and SDFM went for a different aproach. SDF-1 DYRL has a fixed multi layered city in the legs. SDF-1 SDFM has the city on movable plateaus (on rails?) that can rotate with the transformation. This city extends beyond the legs into the torso. The SDFM design is actually quite clever. I compared Macross city to one of the smallest city states in the world: Monte Carlo (33000 residents and ten-thousands of tourists at any given time during the summer) and we are talking upper class luxury here. Monaco has a land area of 1.95 square km. To fit that into the Macross would require 8 plateaus of 400m by 600m (1.92km square km). The city has its own footbal/rugby stadium aswell. Asuming a ceiling at 30 m high per plateau. The whole box would require 240x400x600m. Which would fit in the legs and torso when the SDF-1 is in ship mode. Macross city is probably far more condensed than Monaco as it's far less luxurious reducing the size of the box even more. Heck they could still hold a Formula 1 race and have space for a 30.000 seat stadium;) Other then the need for some dramatic shots the designers didnt cheat that much.
  22. In episode 18 of SDFM the Macross is in robot form. Max and Miliya fight in the city. Global orders to open a hatch to drive Miliya out. When she and Max take of you can see the multiple layers of the city. As they take of vertically from the ground it would suggest that the city rotates 90 degrees during transformation.
  23. I think you may have missed the point here. Good combat pilots rarely die in combat. This is the case in history and (Macross emulates that). If a pilot lived past his rookie phase he had a good chance of going back home alive. Amongst the best the number of fatalities is more often due to accidents then enemy action. Pilots of that era were very brave men but hardly the best pilots ever. I think thats more of a romantic notion then based in fact. Current day selection processes are far more rigorous and demanding. Chances are a that a large number of WOI aces wouldnt have gotten past the recruitment office of the airforces of the world. Military flying was in it's infancy and dogfighting was more like 2 gliders duking it out with machine guns then complex airmaneuvering. As you said pilot skill in those days revolved around anticipation and marksmanship, not aerobatics, fast decision making or multitasking. By the end of WO2 combat aviation had matured. I'm sure the skill difference between 50s jet pilots and modern day fighter pilots is much smaller then those between the WO1 and WO2 pilots. It's easier to compare combat pilots as the result: succesfull missions, number of kills, surival rates, combat hours flown, etc can be compared. Pilot skill is more subjective and would require some aerobatics contest or simulation. IIRC MF pilots had some kind of G-reducing equipment like inertial dampeners of Star Trek fame. Comparing combat piloting is easier. Basara haters can rejoice as he can't sing himself to the top of that chart
  24. Very nice work, hope Yamato gets round to make a Roy VF-1S TV.
  25. Rankings are based on what is achieved, not on what could have been. For example: arguably the best QB of all time is Joe Montana (or Johny Unitas, Dan Marino or a handfull of others). These players all had long careers that allowed them to achieve their great stats. No one will claim that great potentials who got their careers cut short or didn't have a good team are contenders for that honor. Luck and being the right man at the right time play a role. Don't see why that would be any different for pilots. Hikky went the distance so he got the rank and the birds. Haven't seen any match up between Hikaru and Roy. There is no indication that Hikaru flew Skull 001 worse then Roy other then Roy getting mortally wounded in it. Come to think of it: Roy, Claudia and Skull 001, the hidden triangle?
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