I don't think Roslin entirely believes the religous mumbo jumbo. But she does believe it can be used to controll her civilian population. Look at the power that stuff had on our last Presidential election. Bush played the Religous card and it worked.
The whole idea behind living "life as usual" is to keep morale up. Don't you see the same mentality in Isreal? Bombings every week and people still spend time at the mall eating icecream. (That every week think only happend for a while.) Human being need to maintain some sort of semblance of thier lives or some serious felgercarb can happen.
And, quite fankly, this isn't a war. This is a band of refugees looking to stay alive. If blowing up a Cylon fuel depot is what it takes then they'll do it. But the fleet will be avoiding head on combat, if they can, for the most part.
The Cylons may have been driving the fleet towards Kobol the whole time. Leobon could have been sent to send the message that they will find Kobol in order to put some doubts into the minds of the Colonials about thier faith or to just get them off balance in general.
There are a lot of ways to interpret what is going on. And I hope they never spell out everything for us either. The talking about it is almost as thrilling as watching the show.